Middle East · resolved market
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44faade6728a03ef3fc6986f52dd5167f8b1a3005da368278588038f8b713194
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x799d…cbffbacked No | 0c | 17,638$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da9…b9e7backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb341…fd07backed No | 2c | 4,176$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…bf24backed No | 3c | 3,930$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 3,441$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.93 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…9d0abacked No | 3c | 3,401$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd650…c3a4backed No | 3c | 3,017$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433e…86fcbacked No | 2c | 2,962$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 2,286$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…8605backed No | 1c | 2,048$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed No | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec2…d084backed No | 1c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 1c | 1,342$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2867…9815backed No | 3c | 1,336$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…506ebacked No | 4c | 1,261$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 1c | 1,240$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 1c | 1,181$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…e462backed No | 1c | 1,149$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 1,020$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…e1ebbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 6c | 740.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…914ebacked No | 27c | 375.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x061d…7706backed No | 5c | 315$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 7c | 288.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8d18…7a02backed No | 4c | 264.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 11c | 243.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 12c | 234.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…0b03backed No | 11c | 227.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 8c | 193.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd59c…970bbacked No | 12c | 159.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed No | 30c | 115$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 11c | 105.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb90…ed8bbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…566dbacked Yes | 80c | 76.53$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfa…3c08backed Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked No | 34c | 37.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?this page
- Military action against Iran ends by April 1, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 10, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 11, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 12, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 13, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 14, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 16, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 18, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 19, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 2, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 20, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 21, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 22, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 23, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 24, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 25, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 26, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 27, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 28, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 29, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 3, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 6, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 7, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 8, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.