TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Military action against Iran ends by April 24, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$85,329
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,636

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,329 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd650…c3a4backed No2c12,894$205 inLost-$204.94300%0 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b3…5516backed No0c11,200$18 inLost-$18.41816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-70%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e4…fb34backed No0c5,993$16 inLost-$15.574327.9%12 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-38.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb341…fd07backed No1c5,201$70 inLost-$70214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-79.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3e8f…e1ebbacked No1c3,000$30 inLost-$30180%0 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed No1c2,550$15 inLost-$15.51469.6%14 W · 132 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ec2…d084backed No2c2,000$42 inLost-$42.474320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-51.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8c…c003backed No2c1,959$40 inLost-$401216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-54.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a77…6723backed No2c1,210$30 inLost-$30812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No1c1,155$16 inLost-$16.3812918.6%24 W · 105 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick12cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c1,111$12 inLost-$12.221,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b04…a7eabacked No2c775.04$12 inLost-$12.4660%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No2c699.43$15 inLost-$15.236011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa79f…b14ebacked No3c628.05$16 inLost-$16.191421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+49.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x061d…7706backed No4c372.11$14 inLost-$14.3110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d18…7a02backed No4c256.2$10 inLost-$1080%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1639…e706backed Yes17c218$37 inWon+$180.94771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick40cpaid+111.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc992…7994backed No9c137.25$12 inLost-$12.351921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3676…330cbacked No59c20$12 inLost-$11.8742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.