TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Military action against Iran ends by April 21, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,720
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,348

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,720 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe5b3…5516backed No0c10,200$11 inLost-$111816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-70%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd650…c3a4backed No2c8,943$136 inLost-$135.67300%0 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e4…fb34backed No0c7,900$14 inLost-$13.514327.9%12 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-38.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefd0…bf24backed No4c5,474$200 inLost-$2001612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-62.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb341…fd07backed No1c4,147$60 inLost-$60214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-79.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c3,015$49 inLost-$49.175071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e8f…e1ebbacked No1c3,000$28 inLost-$28180%0 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed No1c2,000$13 inLost-$12.611469.6%14 W · 132 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ec2…d084backed No1c1,000$11 inLost-$114320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-51.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2867…9815backed No2c1,000$15 inLost-$152810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-65.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32f9…9158backed No2c1,000$20 inLost-$20422.4%1 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-76.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0de5…d01cbacked Yes75c926$695 inWon+$231.51030%3 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick58cpaid-51.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x16a0…72f1backed No25c926$232 inLost-$231.51540%6 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c738$26 inLost-$25.961,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf92…839dbacked No3c479.77$14 inLost-$14911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-85.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes77c467.29$359 inWon+$107.9124149.4%119 W · 122 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d35…914ebacked No24c412.21$100 inLost-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No3c325.63$11 inLost-$10.766011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0665…2617backed No6c285.95$17 inLost-$16.9160%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No76c261.43$199 inLost-$198.688747.1%41 W · 46 L-8.1wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-11.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1029…9b36backed No6c191.15$12 inLost-$11.819728.9%28 W · 69 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No12c150.04$19 inLost-$18.534136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x586e…c8c3backed Yes24c126.21$30 inWon+$96.214936.7%18 W · 31 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbe37…77c8backed No34c117.16$40 inLost-$402040%8 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b4…168fbacked Yes78c110$86 inWon+$23.845158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7438…b741backed No14c95.46$13 inLost-$13425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed No69c93$64 inLost-$63.8419449.5%96 W · 98 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes28c63.3$18 inWon+$45.5813864.5%89 W · 49 L+41.8wins+0.30per pick34cpaid+83.6%equal weight78+0.26 edge/pick
0x2b62…438cbacked Yes75c51.29$38 inWon+$12.9815751%80 W · 77 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+20.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf609…e68bbacked Yes68c17$12 inWon+$5.44862.5%30 W · 18 L+7.6wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+31.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x50a3…0a78backed Yes74c15.25$11 inWon+$3.9710645.3%48 W · 58 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.