TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$237,471
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$177,454

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $237,471 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8ebf…83cebacked No2c29,600$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.547540%30 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b1…38f5backed No2c11,880$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.13540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+110.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c8,744$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.425071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45a2…3c01backed No4c6,548$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.293315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-67.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e30…1e50backed No1c5,767$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.043237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed No1c5,500$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.511323.9%27 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15f7…a018backed No10c4,670$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.613327.3%9 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No3c4,357$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.581199.2%11 W · 108 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-70.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No2c3,762$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.457135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No7c3,743$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.8412223%28 W · 94 L+12.1wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c2,747$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.491,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6ef…095ebacked No14c2,552$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.041752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed No10c1,827$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.3316537%61 W · 104 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x82a7…afb5backed No41c1,715$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.31662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+50.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes54c1,586$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.6724149.4%119 W · 122 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4e0…6392backed No7c1,515$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No1c1,297$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.193717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes61c1,284$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.0820143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a77…6723backed No3c1,107$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed Yes59c1,067$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.672556%14 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+53.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No5c1,059$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.842036.4%13 W · 190 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c40…3d64backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10280%0 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67c2…84f3backed No2c993.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.191040%4 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick12cpaid+205.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8745…4805backed No41c983$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.092653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x675f…a63bbacked No2c956.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-68.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes59c929$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.172445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No2c906.16$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9425843.4%112 W · 146 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No6c895.75$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.894136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No6c807.72$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.276011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x835f…d27dbacked No2c721.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2770%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes66c699.88$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.9850130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ae…8598backed Yes59c648$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.622352.2%12 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+63.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5795…30fabacked No16c611.34$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.688719.5%17 W · 70 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x525f…b707backed No11c539.84$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.082133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-32.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No45c523.58$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.1226619.2%51 W · 215 L+1.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd245…2318backed No8c507.95$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.764822.9%11 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68bf…3e67backed No55c500$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.49425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No41c468.36$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.0936035.3%127 W · 233 L-30.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No13c455.41$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5239621%83 W · 313 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-64.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked No3c450$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6312616.7%21 W · 105 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+41%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No12c409$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.812438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa99e…fa3dbacked No28c342.99$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes72c333$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.248247.6%39 W · 43 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+67.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No8c327.59$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7231728.7%91 W · 226 L-35.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x746f…566dbacked Yes74c322.18$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.943748.6%18 W · 19 L+6.3wins+0.17per pick32cpaid+28.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed No44c288.83$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.3716961.5%104 W · 65 L+12.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x187f…34ddbacked No7c286.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes67c273.33$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.4215234.2%52 W · 100 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9195…72a4backed Yes75c266.66$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.661050%5 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-27.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88e2…7489backed Yes7c262.9$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.718633.7%29 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6951…3750backed No10c257.41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ee…801bbacked No50c257.06$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.32240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid-8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a77…4fcfbacked Yes64c239.98$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.511643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82b6…5a2ebacked No16c220$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.714647.8%22 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b4…168fbacked No5c213.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.995158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc5e4…45bbbacked No12c210$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8611…da80backed No59c197.32$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.4220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x938e…d242backed Yes74c197.21$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.77350.7%37 W · 36 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc51b…d43dbacked No59c193.56$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4612…d79bbacked No52c193.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf0d…1100backed No59c189.04$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x351f…ccb4backed No59c188.5$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.2220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeff6…2ff7backed No59c188.07$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ca0…8be9backed No59c187.02$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xffde…2838backed No59c186.29$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x232c…2dfebacked No59c184.81$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce12…e22ebacked No59c183.41$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d1…553dbacked No59c183.04$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1dc…9389backed No59c182.47$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a9f…e03bbacked No55c181.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004418.2%8 W · 36 L-0.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb7…f452backed No59c180.4$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.4420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x48a5…b17fbacked No59c177.3$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5dc…d448backed No59c172.6$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8626…acc2backed No59c169.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26e2…ff7cbacked No37c160.87$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601540%6 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6483…4fc8backed No64c156.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-85.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes36c155.38$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.8236634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes71c154.29$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.266872.1%49 W · 19 L+10.0wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+24.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9363…52cabacked No16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243810.5%4 W · 34 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid+61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No7c145.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1735921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8092…b8a2backed No11c121.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.26939.1%27 W · 42 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8433…6e0fbacked Yes28c116$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.75850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a04…2310backed No72c116$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.75728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe349…7552backed No19c113.18$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe364…4b24backed No42c111.85$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.551827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe099…c1c9backed No28c110.73$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8de2…8483backed No41c105.28$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.62616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-77.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05c8…2223backed No60c101.38$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.854454.5%24 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0603…8f62backed Yes60c101.06$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.122236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb90…ed8bbacked No28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.850%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1029…9b36backed No11c91.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.199728.9%28 W · 69 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No16c88.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4589617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6dc3…6660backed No49c81.37$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c7a…6875backed Yes75c79.97$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.747520%15 W · 60 L+0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7c9…3e3dbacked No16c75.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdae1…7a4dbacked No55c72.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes18c68.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9324234.3%83 W · 159 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3ab…96c2backed No16c66.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+238%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No23c66.07$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2885725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes47c64.42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2310913.8%15 W · 94 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.