Middle East · resolved market
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bdc882e3c153d3b6ce6df827507337691f3374754bf734a88f053e2e0f3e1e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $237,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $177,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $237,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked No | 2c | 29,600$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.54 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b1…38f5backed No | 2c | 11,880$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 8,744$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.42 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…3c01backed No | 4c | 6,548$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.29 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed No | 1c | 5,767$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 1c | 5,500$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…a018backed No | 10c | 4,670$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.61 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 3c | 4,357$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 3,762$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 7c | 3,743$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.84 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 2,747$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.49 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked No | 14c | 2,552$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.04 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 10c | 1,827$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.33 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed No | 41c | 1,715$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.3 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 54c | 1,586$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.67 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed No | 7c | 1,515$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 1c | 1,297$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 61c | 1,284$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.08 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a77…6723backed No | 3c | 1,107$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed Yes | 59c | 1,067$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.67 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 5c | 1,059$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c40…3d64backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c2…84f3backed No | 2c | 993.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 12cpaid | +205.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed No | 41c | 983$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.09 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675f…a63bbacked No | 2c | 956.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 59c | 929$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.17 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 2c | 906.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 6c | 895.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 6c | 807.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x835f…d27dbacked No | 2c | 721.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 66c | 699.88$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.98 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed Yes | 59c | 648$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.62 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked No | 16c | 611.34$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x525f…b707backed No | 11c | 539.84$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 45c | 523.58$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.12 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd245…2318backed No | 8c | 507.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed No | 55c | 500$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 41c | 468.36$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.09 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 455.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 3c | 450$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 12c | 409$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99e…fa3dbacked No | 28c | 342.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 72c | 333$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.24 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 8c | 327.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…566dbacked Yes | 74c | 322.18$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 44c | 288.83$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.37 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…34ddbacked No | 7c | 286.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 67c | 273.33$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.42 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9195…72a4backed Yes | 75c | 266.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 7c | 262.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.71 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6951…3750backed No | 10c | 257.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…801bbacked No | 50c | 257.06$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.3 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a77…4fcfbacked Yes | 64c | 239.98$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.51 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b6…5a2ebacked No | 16c | 220$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked No | 5c | 213.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e4…45bbbacked No | 12c | 210$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8611…da80backed No | 59c | 197.32$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed Yes | 74c | 197.21$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc51b…d43dbacked No | 59c | 193.56$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d79bbacked No | 52c | 193.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…1100backed No | 59c | 189.04$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351f…ccb4backed No | 59c | 188.5$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeff6…2ff7backed No | 59c | 188.07$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca0…8be9backed No | 59c | 187.02$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…2838backed No | 59c | 186.29$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x232c…2dfebacked No | 59c | 184.81$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce12…e22ebacked No | 59c | 183.41$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d1…553dbacked No | 59c | 183.04$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1dc…9389backed No | 59c | 182.47$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9f…e03bbacked No | 55c | 181.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb7…f452backed No | 59c | 180.4$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48a5…b17fbacked No | 59c | 177.3$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…d448backed No | 59c | 172.6$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8626…acc2backed No | 59c | 169.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…ff7cbacked No | 37c | 160.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…4fc8backed No | 64c | 156.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 36c | 155.38$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.82 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 71c | 154.29$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +10.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 7c | 145.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…b8a2backed No | 11c | 121.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8433…6e0fbacked Yes | 28c | 116$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a04…2310backed No | 72c | 116$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe349…7552backed No | 19c | 113.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe364…4b24backed No | 42c | 111.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe099…c1c9backed No | 28c | 110.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed No | 41c | 105.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed No | 60c | 101.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed Yes | 60c | 101.06$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb90…ed8bbacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 11c | 91.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 88.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…6660backed No | 49c | 81.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 75c | 79.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c9…3e3dbacked No | 16c | 75.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae1…7a4dbacked No | 55c | 72.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 18c | 68.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ab…96c2backed No | 16c | 66.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +238%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 23c | 66.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 47c | 64.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?this page
- Military action against Iran ends by April 1, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 10, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 11, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 12, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 13, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 14, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 16, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 18, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 19, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 2, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 20, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 21, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 22, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 23, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 24, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 25, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 26, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 27, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 28, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 29, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 3, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 6, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 7, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.