Middle East · resolved market
Military action against Iran ends by April 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5dff8c6d1d61ed81d41c90c3dfa1bf8fd6a9ed2c91e7277f632a8aafd144acf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb698…976abacked No | 1c | 11,369$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.37 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…f38bbacked No | 1c | 10,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd650…c3a4backed No | 2c | 8,784$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.58 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 8,760$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.46 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…e1ebbacked No | 1c | 5,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb341…fd07backed No | 1c | 4,095$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc2…29c6backed No | 5c | 4,087$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…9d0abacked No | 3c | 3,887$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed No | 0c | 3,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 1c | 2,617$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…bf24backed No | 4c | 2,520$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433e…86fcbacked No | 2c | 2,424$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 2,130$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed No | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec2…d084backed No | 2c | 2,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e4…fb34backed No | 1c | 1,895$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 2c | 1,881$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,777$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes | 35c | 1,457$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.05 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 35c | 1,430$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.5 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 1c | 1,400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed No | 65c | 1,382$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.3 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2867…9815backed No | 2c | 913.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 2c | 841.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3adcbacked Yes | 35c | 803$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked No | 65c | 803$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.95 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 2c | 800$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…0c32backed No | 65c | 758$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.37per pick | 49cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…6622backed No | 65c | 747$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x061d…7706backed No | 4c | 390.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…839dbacked No | 4c | 387.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 4c | 278.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfb50…257dbacked No | 68c | 26.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…e5a1backed Yes | 77c | 20.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed Yes | 75c | 18.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Military action against Iran ends by April 18, 2026?this page
- Military action against Iran ends by April 1, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 10, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 11, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 12, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 13, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 14, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 16, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 19, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 2, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 20, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 21, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 22, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 23, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 24, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 25, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 26, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 27, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 28, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 29, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 3, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 6, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 7, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 8, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.