TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6fcd…0c32

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
63
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: AI, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category AI at 54 out of 100; worst Middle East at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$463.25
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.63
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.65
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$123.61
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$573Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$572.76
Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$109.74
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+177.8%+$129.28
Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$37.7
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$78.05
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$94.6
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+60%+$29.64
All 11 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.23
Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.55
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$88.76
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.85
Will "One Battle After Another" win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$388Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$388.41
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$13.78
Will Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$91.65
Will Little Amélie or the Character of Rain be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$47.32
Will Joachim Trier be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+150%+$75.6
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-59.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.85
Will Partido Popular win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regional election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.97
Will PLN win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20.59
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$64.09
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$191.16
Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 82% and 84%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$248Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+56.3%+$139.32
Will Cătălin Drulă get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$122.76
Will Ciprian Ciucu get between 25% and 30% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+69.5%+$97.99
All 8 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.37per pick49cpaid-59.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick30cpaid+212.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Felicia win Melodifestivalen 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$428Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+61.3%+$262.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blackburn Beavers vs. Eastern Illinois Panthersbacked Eastern Illinois Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$277Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+54.1%+$149.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+51.5%+$21.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$15.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Bilytske by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$22.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will two people dissent the December Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$40.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.