World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 82% and 84%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e1bca8d39f81ceacc67fe7fbe6be4594a42391e14c2b5fd0d1ea2f232e28f63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa364…792ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,878$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.74 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 31c | 1,808$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.71 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 23c | 1,345$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.7 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 1c | 1,006$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 17c | 829.98$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.9 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked No | 68c | 800$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 599.99$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 75c | 596.56$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.36 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 19c | 546.04$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.96 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x840e…cae3backed Yes | 24c | 463.8$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.57 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 8c | 443.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed No | 61c | 409$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.04 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes | 34c | 390$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.45 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…0c32backed No | 64c | 387$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed Yes | 36c | 375$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 69c | 327.51$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.52 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb766…1d83backed Yes | 30c | 294.38$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…8adebacked No | 61c | 271$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…93a4backed Yes | 16c | 255.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 25c | 249.45$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f1…f788backed Yes | 21c | 248.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d26…c9f4backed Yes | 39c | 247$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -73%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bc…43e9backed Yes | 38c | 244$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…0fbbbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…3c25backed No | 62c | 227$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb6…cfe8backed Yes | 39c | 208$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…1dcfbacked Yes | 40c | 187$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e0…572dbacked Yes | 31c | 171.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 28c | 166.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed No | 61c | 165$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 23c | 161.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…0731backed Yes | 28c | 155.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…a23bbacked No | 64c | 143$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd70b…a152backed Yes | 40c | 135$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed Yes | 38c | 134$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…53dcbacked No | 57c | 133$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…68b9backed Yes | 43c | 133$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 70c | 129.61$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9357…81ddbacked Yes | 24c | 102.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bae…8200backed Yes | 36c | 99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 96.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 92.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 74c | 86.24$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 61c | 82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4b…1fb3backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 41cpaid | +140.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…2f62backed Yes | 34c | 77.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…a220backed Yes | 38c | 77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes | 26c | 69.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4c…44d8backed Yes | 39c | 63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked No | 60c | 61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…f97bbacked Yes | 19c | 55.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…aa3cbacked Yes | 36c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c2…86c8backed No | 74c | 42.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 37c | 40.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 38.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eda…75ddbacked No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +76%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ad…3581backed No | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 82% and 84%?this page
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be at least 90%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 84% and 86%?Yes won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 86% and 88%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 88% and 90%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be less than 82%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.