TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 82% and 84%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,425
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,079

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,425 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa364…792ebacked Yes26c1,878$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.743030%9 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes31c1,808$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.7119742.6%84 W · 113 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1aba…c083backed Yes23c1,345$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.78036.3%29 W · 51 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed Yes1c1,006$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0620034%68 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes17c829.98$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.928430.3%86 W · 198 L+0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked No68c800$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25713334.6%46 W · 87 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No70c599.99$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18388448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No75c596.56$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.367954.4%43 W · 36 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes19c546.04$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.968237.8%31 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x840e…cae3backed Yes24c463.8$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.572646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes8c443.46$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.311017.3%19 W · 91 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4657…00d6backed No61c409$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.041450%7 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes34c390$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.454045%18 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fcd…0c32backed No64c387$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.32825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-59.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb132…6943backed Yes36c375$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1351163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+27.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No69c327.51$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.5246330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb766…1d83backed Yes30c294.38$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.24139%16 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c55…8adebacked No61c271$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.69944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe23d…93a4backed Yes16c255.04$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.173125.8%8 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes25c249.45$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0311222.3%25 W · 87 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-48.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32f1…f788backed Yes21c248.41$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d26…c9f4backed Yes39c247$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.33520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-73%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3bc…43e9backed Yes38c244$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.72955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6be5…0fbbbacked Yes22c227.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090c…3c25backed No62c227$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.26837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xecb6…cfe8backed Yes39c208$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.121010%1 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.19per pick29cpaid-50%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac45…1dcfbacked Yes40c187$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+55.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8e0…572dbacked Yes31c171.84$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes28c166.56$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6424736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1db2…ebc2backed No61c165$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes23c161.12$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.133525.7%9 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8662…0731backed Yes28c155.57$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.122920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b02…a23bbacked No64c143$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.48837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd70b…a152backed Yes40c135$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ed…28e1backed Yes38c134$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.92850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d3…53dcbacked No57c133$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.19475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+35.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x708a…68b9backed Yes43c133$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.19714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-63.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No70c129.61$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.497554.7%41 W · 34 L-0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9357…81ddbacked Yes24c102.17$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-49.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bae…8200backed Yes36c99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.64742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-38.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes27c96.07$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.541,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes17c92.72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6999017.2%170 W · 820 L-148.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked No74c86.24$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.418741.4%36 W · 51 L+0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ed7…b0a5backed No61c82$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.981346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b4b…1fb3backed No60c80$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick41cpaid+140.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb7cb…2f62backed Yes34c77.94$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.551631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-45.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ff7…a220backed Yes38c77$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.26520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes26c69.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.95729.8%17 W · 40 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b4c…44d8backed Yes39c63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe17a…c6fbbacked No60c61$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-47.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4781…f97bbacked Yes19c55.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.56633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-39%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x700b…aa3cbacked Yes36c44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.84540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c2…86c8backed No74c42.85$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.14475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes37c40.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.131,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No70c38.71$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7926052.3%136 W · 124 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed No64c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.951643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eda…75ddbacked No65c29.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+76%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519957.3%114 W · 85 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ad…3581backed No60c19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.611258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No69c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6511045.5%50 W · 60 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.