World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 86% and 88%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa36f72f20cb363b763d89a93415501a13f965674329efb19840dea8726ddea18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,797$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.24 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 1c | 3,065$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 14c | 1,204$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.86 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…31abbacked Yes | 6c | 966.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x840e…cae3backed Yes | 13c | 879.47$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…7755backed Yes | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eda…75ddbacked Yes | 12c | 407$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +76%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…ea15backed Yes | 6c | 342.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb766…1d83backed Yes | 13c | 311.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…b276backed Yes | 17c | 299.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 7c | 293.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa69…a8cdbacked Yes | 13c | 279$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 9c | 245.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 176.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…2f62backed Yes | 11c | 167.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…0fbbbacked Yes | 16c | 162.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13bb…c279backed Yes | 9c | 141.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a4…e7b3backed Yes | 15c | 132.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…40b0backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…0516backed Yes | 12c | 96.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…55a7backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 86% and 88%?this page
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be at least 90%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 82% and 84%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 84% and 86%?Yes won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 88% and 90%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be less than 82%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.