World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be less than 82%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e4c3f708341691f16d4682415cb2642085d1071950b2b47a474e09fdb150110
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 2c | 5,075$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.96 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 4c | 1,767$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa364…792ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,542$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.24 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 3c | 1,389$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,335$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…a0b0backed Yes | 19c | 982.62$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…027cbacked No | 80c | 795$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes | 8c | 750$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…352fbacked No | 80c | 741$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 739.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…0fbbbacked Yes | 4c | 564.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3a…0ab4backed Yes | 12c | 382.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 5c | 247.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…c00cbacked Yes | 7c | 223.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…2c64backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdf…52bbbacked Yes | 20c | 94.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be less than 82%?this page
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be at least 90%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 82% and 84%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 84% and 86%?Yes won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 86% and 88%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 88% and 90%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.