TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x13bb…c279

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
66
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: AI, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category AI at 57 out of 100; worst Champions League at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT2326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$155.13
Will Iván Cepeda win between 30% and 35% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.36
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.53
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win between 25% and 30% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.5
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.3
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+495.2%+$83.2
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.85
Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.96
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+437.9%+$529.15
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+47.1%+$8
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$43.5
Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 86% and 88%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Will Kast win by 10% to 15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$55.09
Will Kast win by 15% to 20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+194.1%+$59.39
Will Kast win by 5% to 10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$23
Will José Antonio Kast win between 24% and 28% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Jara win by 0-3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+162.1%+$24.31
Will José Antonio Kast win at least 28% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$28
Will José Antonio Kast win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+74.1%+$14.82
All 23 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2026, EDT1450%7 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+80.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
AI — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.18
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$66
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$81
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+317.3%+$82.12
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.62
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.4
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$103.7
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+153%+$19.82
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+75.5%+$53.59
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+224.3%+$31.12
Will Trump say "Good Friend of Mine" or "Friend of Mine" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+224.5%+$22.83
Will Google have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$38
All 14 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.47per pick28cpaid+147.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Earnings — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+147.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+76.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.96per pick4cpaid+2,400%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+2,400%+$284.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+525%+$67.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Data Center" during April press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$35.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$15.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.