World Politics · resolved market
Will Kast win by 5% to 10%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dbed3ce25206273b7b8cbff1b72d79ebbd94ca23b092f6698b323fc8856e225
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…31abbacked Yes | 8c | 35,627$2,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,906.25 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…c00cbacked Yes | 1c | 9,449$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.18 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf64…b221backed Yes | 7c | 6,265$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 5c | 5,740$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.5 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 6c | 4,977$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.04 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cff…686dbacked Yes | 3c | 4,462$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…1536backed Yes | 2c | 4,284$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5694…9baebacked Yes | 2c | 2,856$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…2938backed Yes | 8c | 2,368$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,928$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1e…ed40backed Yes | 8c | 1,734$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 5c | 1,725$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.09 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes | 10c | 1,150$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.66 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4921…8c21backed Yes | 5c | 1,140$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…9e2ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,115$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,059$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18e0…d024backed Yes | 6c | 1,045$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,032$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 1,017$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.85 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…0caebacked Yes | 6c | 999.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…e02fbacked Yes | 8c | 926.62$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb82…7835backed Yes | 11c | 918.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 6c | 899.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…c4e7backed Yes | 7c | 899.61$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 872.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 6c | 870.52$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 7cpaid | +246.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 4c | 754.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…e045backed Yes | 6c | 739.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 6c | 717.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf283…f11ebacked Yes | 7c | 697$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…c24cbacked Yes | 7c | 687.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1c…89a1backed Yes | 5c | 647.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x287d…a84dbacked Yes | 10c | 644.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd552…7c52backed Yes | 6c | 633.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x604b…0a87backed Yes | 8c | 627.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffb…7cbfbacked Yes | 5c | 599.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f50…10a5backed Yes | 3c | 590.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37fd…00d9backed Yes | 7c | 565.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd6…d50bbacked Yes | 7c | 563.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0191…5feebacked Yes | 9c | 554.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2192…8272backed Yes | 5c | 537.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…e1f1backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed Yes | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…0731backed Yes | 6c | 464.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e8…e471backed Yes | 8c | 429.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f76…dbffbacked Yes | 7c | 428.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…0516backed Yes | 4c | 418.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0b…4b5dbacked Yes | 6c | 400.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x101e…eaf4backed Yes | 7c | 388.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f8…2df4backed Yes | 7c | 368.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…40b0backed Yes | 8c | 359.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 8c | 358.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbadb…fa77backed Yes | 9c | 355.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1be8…de7ebacked Yes | 9c | 353.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…4082backed Yes | 7c | 344.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c4dfbacked Yes | 7c | 340.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe701…196fbacked Yes | 7c | 333.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4915…3a94backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x383a…c380backed Yes | 6c | 316.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x786d…b89bbacked Yes | 8c | 311.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 6c | 311.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 8c | 310.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd3…8cdbbacked Yes | 8c | 308.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 308$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x898d…261dbacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 7c | 299.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Yes | 9c | 294.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 9c | 274.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13bb…c279backed Yes | 9c | 266.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1886…d87fbacked Yes | 15c | 262.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e57…1006backed Yes | 9c | 257.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe73e…27f2backed Yes | 4c | 249.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…bb5dbacked Yes | 8c | 226.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6352…0935backed Yes | 9c | 214.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5399…cdb1backed Yes | 6c | 210.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe12f…d1babacked Yes | 8c | 205.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e01…32c8backed Yes | 10c | 200.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf205…90b7backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…db32backed Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…34aabacked Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb6…cfe8backed Yes | 8c | 197$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…7601backed Yes | 7c | 192.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…7693backed Yes | 8c | 190$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…5e7bbacked Yes | 8c | 183$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x786e…20cdbacked Yes | 8c | 180.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…bf01backed Yes | 6c | 180$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2357…9f91backed Yes | 6c | 162.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…e009backed Yes | 7c | 150.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 150.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ec…323abacked Yes | 8c | 149.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2794…c5cfbacked Yes | 9c | 147.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…4903backed Yes | 11c | 138.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9b…f819backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c3…353ebacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ab…5a73backed Yes | 10c | 104.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d81…5d42backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kast win by 5% to 10%?this page
- Will Jara win by at least 5%?No won
- Will Jara win by less than 5%?No won
- Will Kast win by 10% to 15%?No won
- Will Kast win by 15% to 20%?Yes won
- Will Kast win by 20% to 25%?No won
- Will Kast win by at least 25%?No won
- Will Kast win by less than 5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.