World Politics · resolved market
Will Kast win by less than 5%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79adf3a91332e26abb0a9b2b3065a575a56e35ef719e3d1eb493b8793557b90c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 1c | 11,746$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.32 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cff…686dbacked Yes | 2c | 10,477$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59da…ee69backed Yes | 1c | 7,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…2938backed Yes | 6c | 5,246$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…b276backed Yes | 3c | 3,057$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb82…7835backed Yes | 3c | 2,974$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,255$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…31abbacked Yes | 3c | 2,092$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…57e6backed Yes | 7c | 2,053$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…c00cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,939$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,731$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…e045backed Yes | 2c | 1,649$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37fd…00d9backed Yes | 2c | 1,648$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,586$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,457$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18e0…d024backed Yes | 2c | 1,287$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 2c | 1,241$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 1c | 1,214$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 7cpaid | +246.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x287d…a84dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,115$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,051$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…c4e7backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd3…8cdbbacked Yes | 3c | 946.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 2c | 856.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 759.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 746.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 735.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…4082backed Yes | 3c | 728.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e8…e471backed Yes | 3c | 725.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 717.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 646$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5694…9baebacked Yes | 3c | 631.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…e009backed Yes | 2c | 591.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe73e…27f2backed Yes | 3c | 531.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…e1f1backed Yes | 7c | 500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f8…2df4backed Yes | 5c | 476.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c0…d5c0backed Yes | 3c | 456.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbadb…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 405.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…7601backed Yes | 3c | 387.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7d…0804backed Yes | 3c | 339.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f50…10a5backed Yes | 5c | 274.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kast win by less than 5%?this page
- Will Jara win by at least 5%?No won
- Will Jara win by less than 5%?No won
- Will Kast win by 10% to 15%?No won
- Will Kast win by 15% to 20%?Yes won
- Will Kast win by 20% to 25%?No won
- Will Kast win by 5% to 10%?No won
- Will Kast win by at least 25%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.