World Politics · resolved market
Will Kast win by 10% to 15%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85cf86bff19ff39b576427c09ac34277886b70c6bc92b4ecdab2c06beba92312
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $240,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 1c | 21,326$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.73 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…31abbacked Yes | 21c | 19,801$4,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,113.82 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 79c | 17,905$14,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,678.53 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…b1fdbacked Yes | 0c | 9,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 3c | 8,318$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.75 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 1c | 8,032$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.09 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 2c | 6,529$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.12 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…56a3backed Yes | 28c | 5,524$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…ab7dbacked Yes | 3c | 4,789$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5694…9baebacked Yes | 4c | 4,417$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…4828backed Yes | 0c | 3,696$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 5c | 3,381$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.21 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 21c | 3,359$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.57 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cff…686dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,313$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 74c | 2,769$2,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.02 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes | 18c | 2,254$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.46 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 14c | 2,131$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.77 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 2,098$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 4c | 1,800$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.56 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 1,669$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.69 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x179b…eea6backed Yes | 10c | 1,594$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 78c | 1,583$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.13 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 1c | 1,510$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 72c | 1,482$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.73 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa364…792ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,400$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.5 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7d…bb96backed Yes | 29c | 1,330$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc975…2c68backed Yes | 2c | 1,190$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +241.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a5…9d89backed Yes | 13c | 1,140$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,056$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.33 | 94 | 18.1%17 W · 77 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 22c | 1,030$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.2 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed Yes | 15c | 999.96$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 14c | 999.95$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…2938backed Yes | 21c | 966.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf205…90b7backed Yes | 20c | 940.87$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Yes | 43c | 899.93$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed Yes | 6c | 873.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e0…d024backed Yes | 18c | 855.04$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.81 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 26c | 799.06$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.37 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…c00cbacked Yes | 4c | 668.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 646.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 13c | 628.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…8a62backed Yes | 4c | 615.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…1536backed Yes | 17c | 583.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b3…9594backed Yes | 2c | 560$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 15c | 523.29$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…fb04backed Yes | 16c | 499.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 13c | 499.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e57…1006backed Yes | 19c | 491.82$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 3c | 488$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 467.8$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f50…10a5backed Yes | 4c | 379.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x101e…eaf4backed Yes | 21c | 372.49$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 73c | 372.23$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.31 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb82…7835backed Yes | 27c | 365.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…3ab9backed Yes | 15c | 361.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2705…2a4fbacked Yes | 12c | 358.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13bb…c279backed Yes | 16c | 344.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.09 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 79c | 343.46$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.51 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e8…e471backed Yes | 24c | 326.69$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bc…f561backed Yes | 16c | 309.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba20…8202backed Yes | 14c | 302.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898d…261dbacked Yes | 14c | 300.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d12…594fbacked Yes | 16c | 299.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1e…ed40backed Yes | 26c | 295.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes | 28c | 270$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…c4e7backed Yes | 23c | 260.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…db32backed Yes | 16c | 251.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…c6b9backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 63cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…e1f1backed Yes | 20c | 250$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2357…9f91backed Yes | 18c | 243.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022d…9a57backed Yes | 18c | 241.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 227$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.53 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…e045backed Yes | 16c | 218.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37fd…00d9backed Yes | 21c | 218.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed Yes | 16c | 216.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2192…8272backed Yes | 18c | 202.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 146 | 32.2%47 W · 99 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21d7…9cc3backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f76…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…c42abacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffb…7cbfbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 17c | 199.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0191…5feebacked Yes | 18c | 175.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e8…a0adbacked Yes | 6c | 172.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdea…c050backed Yes | 30c | 168.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x383a…c380backed Yes | 21c | 163.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…40b0backed Yes | 17c | 155.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…0731backed Yes | 18c | 155$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e00…373ebacked Yes | 17c | 153.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9357…81ddbacked Yes | 19c | 150.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 150.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf5db…5efdbacked No | 75c | 146.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2794…c5cfbacked Yes | 16c | 146.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x196a…376abacked Yes | 28c | 142.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x604b…0a87backed Yes | 20c | 140$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…457bbacked Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6352…0935backed Yes | 29c | 136.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c3…353ebacked Yes | 22c | 133.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kast win by 10% to 15%?this page
- Will Jara win by at least 5%?No won
- Will Jara win by less than 5%?No won
- Will Kast win by 15% to 20%?Yes won
- Will Kast win by 20% to 25%?No won
- Will Kast win by 5% to 10%?No won
- Will Kast win by at least 25%?No won
- Will Kast win by less than 5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.