World Politics · resolved market
Will Kast win by 15% to 20%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe54d438395243e5b2dd978128dbf0ca745e8a78201e07a5778e2d394e85b98e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $220,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $258,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $220,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 63c | 28,848$18,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,238.28 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…31abbacked Yes | 44c | 19,491$8,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,837.91 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 34c | 6,700$2,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,425.14 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 38c | 4,688$1,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,907.85 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…56a3backed Yes | 32c | 4,607$1,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,142.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a8…8466backed Yes | 34c | 4,233$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,794.11 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 32c | 3,496$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,377.52 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 47c | 3,226$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.35 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe212…f4f5backed Yes | 80c | 2,682$2,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 1c | 2,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 77c | 2,304$1,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.62 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 37c | 2,270$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.29 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7d…bb96backed Yes | 47c | 2,088$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.66 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 66c | 2,027$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.67 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 2,021$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.09 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 30c | 2,005$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.02 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8b…856ebacked No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 37c | 1,829$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.95 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 42c | 1,685$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.32 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,441$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.43 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 71c | 1,390$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.15 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d86fbacked Yes | 37c | 1,293$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 13c | 1,230$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 39c | 1,211$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.4 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 62c | 1,047$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.68 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 35c | 999.08$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.4 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 33c | 997.09$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.05 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe835…acf2backed Yes | 38c | 968.78$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 62c | 960.43$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.73 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 48c | 904.48$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.22 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 31c | 882.55$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.31 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes | 51c | 827.02$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.29 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d02…734fbacked Yes | 25c | 802.61$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0884…70f7backed Yes | 65c | 756.41$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2278…3188backed Yes | 35c | 752.71$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed No | 42c | 694.05$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.03 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6228…96f3backed Yes | 49c | 676.56$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 9c | 667.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 94 | 18.1%17 W · 77 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…ab7dbacked No | 16c | 659.13$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde88…144cbacked Yes | 24c | 638.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.27 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 14c | 596.61$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.53 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.26per pick | 22cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf205…90b7backed Yes | 30c | 583.86$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…8a62backed Yes | 43c | 573.36$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 32c | 550.53$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.62 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f63…3793backed Yes | 53c | 548.34$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.63 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 54c | 537.9$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.09 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 36c | 527.48$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.12 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcb…e448backed Yes | 36c | 520$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed No | 12c | 506.49$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…fb04backed Yes | 26c | 500.29$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…2938backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6049…4aa9backed Yes | 48c | 433.79$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 54c | 418.36$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.49 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa364…792ebacked Yes | 27c | 400$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.41 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a5…9d89backed Yes | 42c | 400$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 3c | 399.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022d…9a57backed Yes | 40c | 394.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…5325backed Yes | 48c | 364.37$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +162.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccb…1a64backed Yes | 36c | 346.86$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 3c | 340.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 67c | 335$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.2 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 37c | 317.72$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.18 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed Yes | 44c | 314$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.76 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 47c | 297.15$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.85 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…40b0backed Yes | 75c | 279.99$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7af7…fd5dbacked Yes | 35c | 279.57$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 49c | 279$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ab…fc69backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de3…e096backed Yes | 33c | 270$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed No | 63c | 265$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.43 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa3…50c4backed Yes | 38c | 252.5$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55aa…417bbacked Yes | 41c | 240.15$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +145.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…ea77backed Yes | 60c | 237.66$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.04 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 62c | 231.05$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.3 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33a…a018backed Yes | 37c | 228$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…9c7bbacked No | 48c | 222.24$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…457bbacked Yes | 28c | 213.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.31 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9357…81ddbacked Yes | 53c | 210.08$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.63 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb82…7835backed Yes | 55c | 204.88$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…93acbacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db1…dab9backed Yes | 54c | 195.41$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…db32backed Yes | 24c | 191.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.79 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 60c | 187$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…3297backed Yes | 28c | 180$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 28c | 176.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb952…a3d1backed Yes | 59c | 176.28$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1e…ed40backed Yes | 57c | 174.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 36c | 174.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…bab6backed Yes | 31c | 161$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e8…e471backed Yes | 46c | 160.61$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 18c | 160$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f76…dbffbacked Yes | 51c | 153.16$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb06…7ffbbacked Yes | 32c | 151.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 61c | 151.46$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…6fcbbacked No | 72c | 150$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…b576backed Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdea…c050backed Yes | 34c | 147.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005d…2dedbacked Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +182.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2635…41aebacked Yes | 33c | 140.56$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kast win by 15% to 20%?this page
- Will Jara win by at least 5%?No won
- Will Jara win by less than 5%?No won
- Will Kast win by 10% to 15%?No won
- Will Kast win by 20% to 25%?No won
- Will Kast win by 5% to 10%?No won
- Will Kast win by at least 25%?No won
- Will Kast win by less than 5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.