World Politics · resolved market
Will Kast win by 20% to 25%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ac73caac2217daecc9cc970f5341dc721a2b32ea96d3f4b72baa18dcffebaaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $264,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $244,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $264,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x055c…42b8backed Yes | 24c | 17,457$4,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,189.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…1a04backed No | 76c | 16,597$12,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,906.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 23c | 11,482$2,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,646.36 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e5…51b6backed Yes | 0c | 11,400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…1301backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Yes | 26c | 9,102$2,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,380.11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a8…8466backed Yes | 21c | 7,153$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.22 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 36c | 6,961$2,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,481.46 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa3…1f6ebacked No | 76c | 6,307$4,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,513.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 3c | 5,873$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.61 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b4…f0aabacked No | 76c | 5,750$4,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6621…96e4backed No | 76c | 5,400$4,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 31c | 4,765$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.37 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 15c | 4,701$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.16 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…31abbacked No | 72c | 4,520$3,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.45 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 35c | 3,871$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.72 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e4…ef6fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,850$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…c8b0backed Yes | 0c | 3,518$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed No | 73c | 3,500$2,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.6 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 27c | 2,639$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.44 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x840e…cae3backed No | 67c | 2,300$1,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.89 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 23c | 2,023$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.86 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc43b…784dbacked Yes | 35c | 2,005$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 28c | 1,976$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.47 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 74c | 1,958$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.27 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,729$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.43 | 94 | 18.1%17 W · 77 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…9800backed Yes | 27c | 1,700$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.98 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed Yes | 18c | 1,601$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 24c | 1,404$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.7 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 1,328$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.21 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 24c | 1,310$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.43 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,250$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.55 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 24c | 1,248$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.08 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d86fbacked Yes | 31c | 1,225$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,215$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.56 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe835…acf2backed Yes | 27c | 1,193$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…a0b0backed Yes | 36c | 1,098$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,061$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.52 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 69c | 1,023$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.69 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9792…9212backed Yes | 1c | 1,010$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 24c | 1,005$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.2 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc38…f41ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.18 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7d…bb96backed Yes | 33c | 986.92$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 36c | 940.09$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.41 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…56a3backed Yes | 31c | 897.18$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb74e…e0a6backed Yes | 27c | 869.8$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6228…96f3backed Yes | 30c | 861.14$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d02…734fbacked Yes | 33c | 841.12$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x925b…640ebacked Yes | 13c | 807$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe701…196fbacked Yes | 13c | 789.97$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc975…2c68backed Yes | 2c | 717.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +241.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…55a7backed Yes | 35c | 715.21$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed No | 64c | 708.97$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.26 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6049…4aa9backed Yes | 19c | 695.95$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec7…5d2dbacked Yes | 13c | 622.54$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 24c | 602.53$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.42 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 25c | 596.57$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.32 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c86…923fbacked Yes | 22c | 591.8$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 41cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…9750backed Yes | 4c | 520.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca23…d1a8backed Yes | 41c | 507.86$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed Yes | 3c | 506.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…fb04backed Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcb…e448backed No | 65c | 499.99$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 22c | 489.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.53 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x898d…261dbacked No | 65c | 460.67$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 76c | 452.12$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6997…ceb6backed Yes | 27c | 444.85$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…31c2backed Yes | 4c | 444.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 22c | 437.26$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.07 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31f2…dc20backed Yes | 31c | 425.33$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f5…4b0bbacked Yes | 27c | 412$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a5…9d89backed Yes | 34c | 398.69$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…40b0backed Yes | 40c | 384.94$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.18 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…8a62backed Yes | 7c | 384.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x179b…eea6backed Yes | 53c | 378.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 16c | 377$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…ef30backed Yes | 44c | 367.37$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked No | 64c | 364.88$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…3297backed Yes | 23c | 345.45$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.46 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 329.53$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.87 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x960f…43b2backed Yes | 28c | 326.12$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes | 38c | 325.34$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.06 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 68c | 306.99$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.29 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 19c | 300$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa364…792ebacked No | 80c | 300$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…bf01backed No | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 10c | 292.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2264…30dfbacked Yes | 22c | 290$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdf…e8afbacked Yes | 34c | 286.16$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 75c | 283$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…457bbacked Yes | 37c | 271.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…a680backed Yes | 19c | 265.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1e…ed40backed Yes | 37c | 262.45$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe468…f57fbacked Yes | 29c | 255.26$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…57e6backed Yes | 28c | 254.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 253.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 23c | 250$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kast win by 20% to 25%?this page
- Will Jara win by at least 5%?No won
- Will Jara win by less than 5%?No won
- Will Kast win by 10% to 15%?No won
- Will Kast win by 15% to 20%?Yes won
- Will Kast win by 5% to 10%?No won
- Will Kast win by at least 25%?No won
- Will Kast win by less than 5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.