TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb74e…e0a6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
67
Categories scored
21
Categories below 50
19

Best Category: NBA, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 51 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST90%0 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,537Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,537
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$253
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$247
Will Donald Trump say "Thousand," "Million," or "Billion" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$32.47
Will Donald Trump say "Kiev" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$70
Will Donald Trump say "Putin" at least once during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$28
Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$47.8
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$44
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-79.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$124
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum finish in second place in the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$438Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$438
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$811Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$811
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$474Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$474
Will Kast win by 20% to 25%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$234
Will Kast win by 15% to 20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+63.6%+$36.87
Will Kast win by at least 25%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$187
All 8 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST60%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+80.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sevilla FC win on 2025-12-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$40.05
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)backed Real Madrid CF · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$23.5
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$140
All 3 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+146.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Celtics vs. Trail Blazersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$492Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$492
Warriors vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$421Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+392.4%+$1,650.91
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$1,116.32
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$123
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$350
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)backed Paris Saint-Germain FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$51
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$39
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs. Michigan State Spartansbacked Oakland Golden Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RB Leipzig vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Battle of the Sexes: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nick Kyrgiosbacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$172
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$171
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.