Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf82397e36b76da50fa3df8e9337a4ce42438514dd0aeb95d293990438263a122
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $423,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $320,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $423,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 300 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 12c | 10,967$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.22 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 9c | 10,017$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.72 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 24c | 8,942$2,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,163.39 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 12c | 7,702$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.84 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…95b4backed Yes | 0c | 7,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked Yes | 5c | 6,276$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.52 | 103 | 22.3%23 W · 80 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 23c | 6,000$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408.04 | 144 | 13.9%20 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb087…6658backed Yes | 5c | 5,203$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.16 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…0b8dbacked Yes | 4c | 5,087$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.49 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes | 3c | 4,949$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.98 | 80 | 2.5%2 W · 78 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 5c | 4,689$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.83 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 5c | 4,413$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.58 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Yes | 9c | 4,273$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.26 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 6c | 3,862$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.19 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked No | 50c | 3,799$1,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,899.7 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes | 9c | 3,754$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.72 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 6c | 3,429$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.56 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 9c | 3,378$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.27 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 10c | 3,299$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.23 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 7c | 3,197$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.46 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb74e…e0a6backed Yes | 6c | 3,126$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 6c | 3,092$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.08 | 121 | 6.6%8 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…9a07backed Yes | 3c | 2,870$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 16c | 2,518$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.13 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,417$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.12 | 250 | 12.8%32 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 4c | 2,197$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,175$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.75 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 6c | 2,174$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.55 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 42c | 2,117$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.84 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e6…819fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,063$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…2050backed Yes | 13c | 1,976$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.85 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…107abacked No | 55c | 1,945$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc507…6054backed Yes | 29c | 1,873$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.51 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes | 13c | 1,855$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.93 | 135 | 17.8%24 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,833$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…77acbacked Yes | 8c | 1,829$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.12 | 159 | 25.2%40 W · 119 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 14c | 1,781$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.32 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 42c | 1,744$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.05 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 18c | 1,725$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.06 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9429…c151backed No | 58c | 1,662$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.86 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 15c | 1,524$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.37 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 36c | 1,500$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.72 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3c…1a17backed Yes | 3c | 1,494$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…18debacked Yes | 12c | 1,428$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.06 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,369$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…fb89backed Yes | 44c | 1,296$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.2 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 15c | 1,182$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.56 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a4…d091backed Yes | 4c | 1,036$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +254.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd02…5d91backed Yes | 45c | 1,011$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 15c | 999.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 191 | 18.8%36 W · 155 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 31c | 960.38$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.4 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…964ebacked Yes | 32c | 940$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.8 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…70d2backed Yes | 9c | 937.01$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.95 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes | 3c | 925.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Yes | 7c | 906.05$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb33e…cd0abacked Yes | 5c | 904.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf328…2b78backed Yes | 5c | 902.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…9c28backed Yes | 36c | 900.82$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.73 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae1…65ecbacked Yes | 14c | 831.79$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.23 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…cb18backed Yes | 30c | 818.26$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.97 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe46…8b21backed Yes | 10c | 806.16$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.31 | 218 | 16.1%35 W · 183 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 5c | 793.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 27c | 777.49$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.1 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed Yes | 7c | 750$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 108 | 24.1%26 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…fbbcbacked No | 80c | 735$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 7c | 699.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2d…4a62backed Yes | 28c | 692.7$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.56 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 52c | 687.22$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.06 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 5c | 687.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…3b94backed Yes | 49c | 683.54$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…7d37backed Yes | 13c | 669.62$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.05 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 18c | 656.67$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.73 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4f…eb7ebacked Yes | 6c | 655.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 218 | 27.1%59 W · 159 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…32f6backed Yes | 5c | 646.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +61%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 16c | 628.77$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.31 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 32c | 616.29$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.98 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…57b2backed Yes | 3c | 614.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 84 | 9.5%8 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +105%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 48c | 604.8$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.72 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 4c | 604.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 5c | 600$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 6c | 599.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…4017backed Yes | 8c | 584.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…28dbbacked Yes | 3c | 584.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x960b…9303backed Yes | 7c | 576.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 4c | 574.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 30c | 558.11$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.43 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 45c | 545.99$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.17 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 57c | 511.36$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.44 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5523…561cbacked Yes | 49c | 509.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1afa…72d7backed Yes | 48c | 501.55$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 5c | 500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb2…7a69backed Yes | 48c | 496.41$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes | 48c | 482.21$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.99 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.