Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfdb863cc93e4ed27168876ddb32b6582ea03554eff9dbd9258c37c901f9b240
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $465,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $507,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $465,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 320 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4247…91c4backed No | 0c | 12,565$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a23…ab0bbacked No | 0c | 11,701$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9512…5cf9backed No | 0c | 10,801$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e2…77e1backed No | 50c | 10,761$5,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,416.18 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b4…3cf1backed No | 1c | 8,106$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.06 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 21c | 6,297$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332.97 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfafe…2e34backed Yes | 80c | 5,662$4,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.4 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 22c | 5,627$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.15 | 73 | 71.2%52 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 70c | 5,579$3,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,689.59 | 138 | 17.4%24 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed No | 44c | 5,029$2,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,232.96 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 39c | 4,907$1,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,973.32 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 17c | 4,868$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.74 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 74c | 4,734$3,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.19 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064b…eae5backed No | 9c | 4,666$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.15 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 80c | 4,109$3,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.55 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b7…227bbacked No | 76c | 4,022$3,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,057.87 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 60c | 3,808$2,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,268.73 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 5c | 3,791$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.66 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x952c…be27backed No | 8c | 3,516$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.3 | 68 | 22.1%15 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed No | 6c | 3,327$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.57 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 5c | 3,220$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.96 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 27c | 3,084$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,258.68 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 26c | 3,000$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,232.25 | 144 | 13.9%20 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed No | 15c | 2,980$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.27 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 53c | 2,465$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.22 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…9a07backed No | 4c | 2,441$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.48 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 50c | 2,423$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.53 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed Yes | 30c | 2,320$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,613.95 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 29c | 2,298$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.98 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…2917backed Yes | 72c | 2,297$1,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.55 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked No | 7c | 2,238$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.88 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc507…6054backed Yes | 46c | 2,236$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.4 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…3a33backed Yes | 30c | 2,098$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.15 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 54c | 2,089$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.09 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4a…4896backed No | 14c | 2,024$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.53 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked No | 4c | 2,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed41…38afbacked No | 5c | 1,970$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.31 | 128 | 25.8%33 W · 95 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd832…15debacked Yes | 54c | 1,870$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 16c | 1,727$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.67 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9429…c151backed No | 73c | 1,674$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed No | 71c | 1,593$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.19 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 68c | 1,563$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.7 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed No | 7c | 1,557$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.86 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b6…0203backed No | 7c | 1,495$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.94 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 7c | 1,473$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.61 | 250 | 12.8%32 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd15a…80dbbacked Yes | 76c | 1,426$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.62 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 41c | 1,285$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.85 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed No | 3c | 1,285$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 23c | 1,255$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.24 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 1,118$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.97 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 15c | 1,080$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.84 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…fb89backed Yes | 44c | 1,049$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.62 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b8…e9f3backed No | 3c | 999.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 60 | 20%12 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 5c | 999.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 121 | 6.6%8 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e7…1b38backed Yes | 39c | 999.69$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.23 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd02…5d91backed Yes | 26c | 995.95$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed No | 7c | 988.39$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…dbd4backed No | 51c | 975.5$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.51 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…70d2backed Yes | 65c | 961.07$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.11 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 20c | 951.23$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.32 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…2004backed Yes | 36c | 932$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.71 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 41c | 909.97$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.24 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 65c | 892.94$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.2 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x863b…4f2cbacked Yes | 58c | 851$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.09 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 5c | 786.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 47c | 768.78$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.61 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed No | 8c | 768.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 25c | 765.9$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.81 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes | 27c | 732.78$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.92 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked No | 38c | 711.29$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.04 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 63c | 700$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4645…59babacked No | 64c | 699.98$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.99 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…063ebacked No | 36c | 699.97$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 34c | 673.59$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.48 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…3b94backed Yes | 28c | 673.1$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 16c | 635.9$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…cb18backed No | 38c | 633.62$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.78 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…3740backed Yes | 24c | 609.13$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +310.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 34c | 600$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.84 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d69…e597backed No | 70c | 599.97$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.98 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4f…eb7ebacked No | 6c | 592.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 218 | 27.1%59 W · 159 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…ebcabacked Yes | 35c | 578.84$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.57 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd04…2599backed No | 10c | 577.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 168 | 17.3%29 W · 139 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked No | 54c | 550$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 22c | 536.64$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.29 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed No | 20c | 532.03$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.92 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f13…1631backed Yes | 58c | 529.49$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.4 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6c…0b29backed No | 10c | 508.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed No | 74c | 500$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…2858backed No | 12c | 499.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 117 | 29.1%34 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…9a95backed No | 39c | 499.97$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 22c | 499.94$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.96 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1afa…72d7backed Yes | 26c | 489.75$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…a932backed Yes | 73c | 484.48$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.15 | 89 | 25.8%23 W · 66 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb2…7a69backed Yes | 27c | 482.65$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc8…4676backed Yes | 71c | 476.24$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.8 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…fca1backed Yes | 45c | 469.99$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…76aebacked Yes | 24c | 448.67$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.49 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.