Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c2659e819bd13795a03aad6650d026ab202cedd16b145ac92ce411bfc3173b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $709,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $568,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $709,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 3c | 42,788$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.82 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 0c | 28,435$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 50 | 6%3 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 12c | 22,331$2,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,758.03 | 138 | 17.4%24 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 5c | 21,977$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.19 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 10c | 16,038$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.62 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes | 0c | 14,721$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 68 | 8.8%6 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 2c | 12,096$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.38 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 9c | 11,785$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.68 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd5…cae2backed Yes | 0c | 9,176$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…dbd4backed Yes | 1c | 8,511$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.62 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 6c | 6,649$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.96 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 5c | 6,498$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.9 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 5c | 6,382$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.5 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…3a33backed Yes | 20c | 6,360$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.86 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 7c | 5,462$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.92 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 3c | 5,385$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.4 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 7c | 4,919$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.07 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 5c | 4,270$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.53 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 1c | 3,800$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 3c | 3,793$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.12 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe133…6994backed Yes | 10c | 3,711$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.05 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedb6…b279backed Yes | 8c | 3,542$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | +251.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x863b…4f2cbacked Yes | 5c | 3,469$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.44 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 5c | 3,468$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.94 | 102 | 16.7%17 W · 85 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes | 10c | 3,361$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.08 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 1c | 3,330$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 191 | 18.8%36 W · 155 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 6c | 3,088$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.72 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 7c | 3,012$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.84 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe46…8b21backed Yes | 7c | 3,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.52 | 218 | 16.1%35 W · 183 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 2c | 2,998$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…03c7backed Yes | 15c | 2,863$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.3 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,862$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.59 | 144 | 13.9%20 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,734$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.75 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 3c | 2,676$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…440ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,632$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.31 | 211 | 6.6%14 W · 197 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes | 3c | 2,476$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 6c | 2,433$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.47 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 2c | 2,361$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…2eb1backed Yes | 5c | 2,299$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.77 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,263$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.72 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 9c | 2,255$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.08 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,172$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.67 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,164$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.09 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 10c | 2,008$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.73 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 6c | 1,989$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.34 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8e…c29ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,947$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…17acbacked Yes | 8c | 1,942$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.81 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd651…f760backed Yes | 6c | 1,941$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 7c | 1,939$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.74 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 5c | 1,936$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…9662backed Yes | 5c | 1,908$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.63 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…7d37backed Yes | 6c | 1,815$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.43 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 1,815$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 9c | 1,687$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.37 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7946…bfb2backed Yes | 4c | 1,560$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…2858backed Yes | 11c | 1,558$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.05 | 117 | 29.1%34 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…cecdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,545$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 15c | 1,523$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.78 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…2004backed Yes | 5c | 1,507$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…f59abacked Yes | 1c | 1,387$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4261…8d5bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,348$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +153.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 9c | 1,344$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.25 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 10c | 1,326$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.67 | 149 | 23.5%35 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…f169backed Yes | 6c | 1,300$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 4c | 1,295$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes | 4c | 1,288$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,238$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3c…1a17backed Yes | 3c | 1,214$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…d073backed Yes | 5c | 1,210$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…0c07backed Yes | 4c | 1,193$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x102b…a7acbacked Yes | 4c | 1,163$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b8…2204backed Yes | 3c | 1,083$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064b…eae5backed Yes | 6c | 1,082$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.04 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed Yes | 5c | 1,043$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 178 | 24.7%44 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 6c | 1,023$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 7c | 1,019$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa5…e581backed Yes | 4c | 1,012$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb087…6658backed Yes | 5c | 997.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 6c | 980.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 3c | 973.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 2c | 902.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 4c | 894.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 559 | 8.2%46 W · 513 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b6…9ff5backed Yes | 5c | 880.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…a567backed Yes | 5c | 860.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 3c | 825.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…f5adbacked Yes | 4c | 805.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…18debacked Yes | 9c | 800$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0759…a93dbacked Yes | 6c | 785.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 8c | 771.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 4c | 766.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 2c | 764.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…8fcebacked Yes | 8c | 719.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x513d…f7babacked Yes | 6c | 700$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe924…e6a7backed Yes | 2c | 699.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 3c | 696.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed Yes | 20c | 691.42$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 8c | 687.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 250 | 12.8%32 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.