TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0759…a93d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
57
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Tweets, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 56 out of 100; worst Commodities at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT3933.3%13 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Tweets — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$71
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.64
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.11
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.56
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+204.8%+$73.92
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.55
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+66.4%+$13.28
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+300%+$150
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.44
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.47
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.33
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.93
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.13
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+52.4%+$71.37
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,098Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+156.5%+$1,717.4
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$821Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+42.1%+$345.37
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.85
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.89
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.31
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.69
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-71.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.9
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+29.7%+$17.04
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.12
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.18
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.5
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.6
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+82.9%+$218.57
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or higher on April 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.92
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.7
All 11 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.68
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
All 2 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$15.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$8.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$527Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$526.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sprinklr (CXM) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.