TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$433,553
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$212,373

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $433,553 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes1c36,862$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.044816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes1c7,755$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.081,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes0c5,478$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.491308.5%11 W · 119 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed Yes1c5,348$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.112421.8%27 W · 97 L+11.8wins+0.10per pick12cpaid+49.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes1c5,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4379811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3237…dbd4backed Yes1c4,300$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.12725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes5c3,050$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14412117.4%21 W · 100 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes13c2,883$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.841,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes15c2,693$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.9739723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc267…850fbacked Yes2c2,563$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-0.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac28…0d06backed Yes4c2,412$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.33937.5%7 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes17c2,276$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.5531621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes2c2,186$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53819.9%8 W · 73 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes3c2,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503134.8%15 W · 298 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c1,849$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.011,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes11c1,766$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.8763821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f38…e56cbacked Yes1c1,747$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.751315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-79.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Yes2c1,648$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1220129.4%59 W · 142 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes26c1,570$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.2753522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x731a…9062backed Yes13c1,500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.991323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x064b…eae5backed No79c1,468$1,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.627439.2%29 W · 45 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes8c1,450$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.149919%95 W · 404 L-1.7wins0.00per pick19cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes6c1,288$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.881,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2be3…44a5backed Yes8c1,159$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.224233.3%14 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes2c1,051$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.421,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x555c…c64dbacked Yes10c1,050$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014332.9%47 W · 96 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes2c999.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.282714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes13c988.56$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.334425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7946…bfb2backed Yes15c983.92$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.0690%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes4c898.88$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.975115.7%8 W · 43 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes8c866.3$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.722,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes2c826.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6810510.5%11 W · 94 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes13c772.95$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.691507.3%11 W · 139 L-11.1wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e40…0ce1backed Yes6c689.04$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.943225%8 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18e4…8e4ebacked Yes2c533.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.71119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-77%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes5c499.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2542719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes4c499.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2221215.1%32 W · 180 L+0.6wins0.00per pick15cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes12c491.11$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.92176%13 W · 204 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes13c423.32$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4817631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes5c399.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.748819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes10c386.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8232110%32 W · 289 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b4e…128ebacked Yes14c356.83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010652.8%56 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb1…9319backed Yes13c356.63$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8934515.9%55 W · 290 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes12c306.77$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1811224.1%27 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-40.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x774d…5cdabacked Yes8c300$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.414818.2%27 W · 121 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf21…18debacked Yes14c299.97$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4117324.3%42 W · 131 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes11c297.69$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8710617%18 W · 88 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes5c291.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7314037.1%52 W · 88 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes8c233.04$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5988017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2194…3a90backed Yes19c204.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9511826.3%31 W · 87 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2749…06edbacked Yes16c200.95$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.147432.4%24 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f07…3f68backed Yes23c200.65$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1511721.4%25 W · 92 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick23cpaid+16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f26…1f12backed Yes14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2813517%23 W · 112 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-56.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdadf…8034backed Yes19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38306.7%2 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-63.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.531743.2%137 W · 180 L+28.2wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+13.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xee76…8fcebacked Yes24c189.69$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.224517.8%8 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x915b…2729backed Yes18c182.87$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1112218.9%23 W · 99 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes16c171.75$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4818321.9%40 W · 143 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814f…aeecbacked Yes13c168.55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.915819%11 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ff5…3fd6backed Yes9c160.89$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4811017.3%19 W · 91 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d6b…0420backed Yes25c144.96$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2410129.7%30 W · 71 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fb2…83b5backed Yes14c140$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204422.7%10 W · 34 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11e8…f98fbacked Yes18c123.8$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223836.8%14 W · 24 L+7.0wins+0.19per pick18cpaid+97%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6d13…b89abacked Yes11c113.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.481811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-54.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95ac…d636backed Yes16c108.09$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd293…a4e3backed Yes19c106.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.211020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes17c106.21$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3517720.9%37 W · 140 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2732…e2a6backed Yes11c102.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67f8…0f98backed Yes18c102$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd30b…f560backed Yes23c100.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.082737%10 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1514025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…77acbacked Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1215925.2%40 W · 119 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe924…e6a7backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8d4…2ad9backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1414129.1%41 W · 100 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x200b…2c01backed Yes16c97.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.57616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-61.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0759…a93dbacked Yes19c86.39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.443933.3%13 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1626…9992backed Yes27c85.83$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1811428.9%33 W · 81 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes16c80$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.213926.6%37 W · 102 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8c…ff35backed Yes17c71.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b9…7023backed Yes22c70$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.122227%60 W · 162 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes24c67.79$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.395930.5%18 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c04…6587backed Yes22c58.34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9847032.6%153 W · 317 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa55a…0c43backed Yes22c47.15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.375219.2%10 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed No74c39.17$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0511725.6%30 W · 87 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30cf…704abacked No75c23.92$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.989348.4%45 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.