Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca11a87312c2accfb3f46f4645ed089a08775459818e3f90246444709b79f632
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $189,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed Yes | 0c | 57,380$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 138 | 15.9%22 W · 116 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019f…1152backed Yes | 10c | 10,035$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.68 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 9c | 6,677$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.75 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 0c | 5,196$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70be…044dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 3c | 4,809$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.46 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 0c | 3,941$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 3,525$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f13…1631backed Yes | 10c | 1,898$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.68 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958e…219cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,458$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,219$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 11c | 1,040$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.45 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 1c | 960.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 942.97$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.06 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 11c | 757.3$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.12 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212c…2c1fbacked Yes | 13c | 736.69$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.11 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x007a…a4fdbacked Yes | 13c | 705.51$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 6c | 699.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 680.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ab…2da7backed Yes | 5c | 658.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 15c | 612.44$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.58 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…64ebbacked Yes | 10c | 565.78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200b…2c01backed Yes | 8c | 540.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b9…0d39backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 108 | 20.4%22 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 7c | 437.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 5c | 431.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes | 3c | 429.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 12c | 407.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…0d7dbacked Yes | 7c | 406.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +103%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 10c | 406.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…a0a2backed Yes | 10c | 403.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa5…e581backed Yes | 11c | 346$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 7c | 335.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 10c | 333.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…a567backed Yes | 20c | 234.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b73…c441backed No | 79c | 227.45$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf050…99cfbacked Yes | 14c | 216.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd13d…a958backed Yes | 9c | 206$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 9c | 193.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 345 | 15.9%55 W · 290 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d54…067bbacked Yes | 8c | 183.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba8…697ebacked Yes | 19c | 174.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 10c | 172.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 8c | 165.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…bef6backed Yes | 11c | 165.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 162$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9443…7c5dbacked Yes | 13c | 117.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 11c | 107.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e07…0034backed Yes | 11c | 97.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.