TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6e82…77ac

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
176
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Tweets, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 55 out of 100; worst Valorant at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT15925.2%40 W · 119 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 159 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.04
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$58.33
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.95
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.9
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$127.05
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$16.94
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.3
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.9
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.2
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+226.8%+$45.36
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.48
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.86
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+129.9%+$64.71
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.47
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.58
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+122.1%+$190.66
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.7
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.6
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.15
Showing 25 of 159 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$26.33
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.3
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.7
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+172.4%+$44.3
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.5
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.9
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+115.7%+$150.2
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.8
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+73.9%+$17
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+192.2%+$59.2
All 12 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alphabacked Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.