Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ec2637fafd87b6d76f018cee6fe427bbcab164004ec81188a25c60de1889425
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 206 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 28c | 17,911$4,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,983.19 | 186 | 16.1%30 W · 156 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 10c | 12,194$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.83 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 10,156$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 15c | 6,370$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.99 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 29c | 4,884$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.39 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 32c | 4,851$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,551.77 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 20c | 4,196$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.72 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,132$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 552 | 5.6%31 W · 521 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 3,813$2,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.25 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed Yes | 9c | 3,643$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.1 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 17c | 3,417$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.63 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5285…1cc5backed Yes | 32c | 3,050$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.38 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed Yes | 5c | 2,997$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.19 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 28c | 2,576$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.82 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 33c | 2,444$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.28 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed No | 78c | 2,373$1,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.83 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 24c | 2,094$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 10c | 2,020$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.8 | 797 | 11.3%90 W · 707 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 33c | 1,877$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.43 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 14c | 1,818$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.75 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4a…fc9bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,543$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.93 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 2c | 1,498$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…d3dfbacked Yes | 46c | 1,463$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,322$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.28 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,297$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.55 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 61c | 1,253$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.45 | 73 | 71.2%52 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 43c | 1,186$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.93 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 1,181$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.27 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,152$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7111…7c21backed Yes | 24c | 1,150$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.87 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 278 | 5%14 W · 264 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 33c | 1,052$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.89 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked Yes | 26c | 1,037$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.92 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 38c | 1,030$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.83 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 51c | 1,030$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.15 | 161 | 22.4%36 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.23 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 11c | 999.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 252 | 11.5%29 W · 223 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…4847backed Yes | 20c | 999.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39f…8d53backed Yes | 51c | 962.75$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 70c | 925.55$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.52 | 219 | 59.8%131 W · 88 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6360…1699backed Yes | 11c | 903.75$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 75c | 892.28$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.84 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa980…583ebacked Yes | 2c | 861.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 36c | 854.99$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.9 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 8c | 737.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 51c | 668.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.82 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 654.18$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.36 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 10c | 648.6$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 71c | 626.42$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.4 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes | 41c | 610.62$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.23 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 29c | 600.3$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.18 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 558.86$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked No | 53c | 556.96$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.26 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 38c | 546.78$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 16c | 509.74$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.42 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 39c | 505$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.95 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338d…6fd4backed Yes | 49c | 496.23$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.42 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 491.27$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.49 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes | 22c | 426.57$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.71 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 32c | 402.67$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.89 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f7…9ed6backed Yes | 42c | 401.01$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.67 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 8c | 351.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 118 | 9.3%11 W · 107 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes | 35c | 350.62$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.63 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d5…d80abacked Yes | 5c | 347.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 14c | 331.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…0d4ebacked Yes | 22c | 330.87$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 310$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.61 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…e1a4backed Yes | 18c | 309.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb614…2a44backed Yes | 33c | 306.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 113 | 39.8%45 W · 68 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 37c | 302.04$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.32 | 211 | 22.3%47 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Yes | 22c | 300$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…9457backed Yes | 37c | 270.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 71c | 265.75$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.47 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d6…e59ebacked Yes | 22c | 254.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…80dabacked No | 79c | 250.04$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 250$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.2 | 308 | 54.9%169 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 72c | 235$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…f982backed Yes | 23c | 223.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…24cabacked Yes | 46c | 220$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 73 | 12.3%9 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 44c | 218.3$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d4…6d35backed Yes | 9c | 213.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 15c | 208.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 239 | 55.2%132 W · 107 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac5f…d808backed Yes | 40c | 200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 29c | 192.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 26c | 190$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…66c7backed Yes | 29c | 186.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 96 | 28.1%27 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c7…21cbbacked Yes | 32c | 176.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 23c | 175.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 197 | 31%61 W · 136 L | +13.8wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 38c | 173.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 40c | 167.32$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeef…9bb9backed No | 73c | 165.16$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7de…537abacked Yes | 24c | 163$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…6599backed Yes | 24c | 160.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 27c | 152$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.