TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$165,726
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$123,512

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,726 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 206 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes28c17,911$4,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,983.1918616.1%30 W · 156 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes10c12,194$1,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.8353817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes1c10,156$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851,0608.4%89 W · 971 L+29.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes15c6,370$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.9999410.6%105 W · 889 L-30.0wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes29c4,884$1,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,392.3913430.6%41 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes32c4,851$1,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,551.7753222.7%121 W · 411 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes20c4,196$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.7222023.6%52 W · 168 L+1.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes1c4,132$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.065525.6%31 W · 521 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No73c3,813$2,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.2510556.2%59 W · 46 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e714backed Yes9c3,643$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.18324.1%20 W · 63 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes17c3,417$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.631,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5285…1cc5backed Yes32c3,050$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.382725.9%7 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-28.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed Yes5c2,997$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.1912421.8%27 W · 97 L+11.8wins+0.10per pick12cpaid+49.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes28c2,576$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.8222325.1%56 W · 167 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes33c2,444$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.2842424.5%104 W · 320 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x913f…c676backed No78c2,373$1,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.8310043%43 W · 57 L-7.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-31.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x99a6…6558backed Yes24c2,094$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007337%27 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes10c2,020$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.879711.3%90 W · 707 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes33c1,877$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.4356329.8%168 W · 395 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes14c1,818$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.7543719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa4a…fc9bbacked Yes29c1,543$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.939035.6%32 W · 58 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes2c1,498$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8836411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x079a…d3dfbacked Yes46c1,463$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.28742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes13c1,322$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.2827417.5%48 W · 226 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes11c1,297$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.5532613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No61c1,253$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.457371.2%52 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes43c1,186$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.9354122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No74c1,181$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.2710151.5%52 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes35c1,152$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001227.4%9 W · 113 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick8cpaid+43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7111…7c21backed Yes24c1,150$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.871844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes1c1,111$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.112785%14 W · 264 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-89.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes33c1,052$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.8915929.6%47 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x881a…ccccbacked Yes26c1,037$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.9213235.6%47 W · 85 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes38c1,030$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.8317335.3%61 W · 112 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed No51c1,030$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.1516122.4%36 W · 125 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.2339723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes11c999.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11025211.5%29 W · 223 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa927…4847backed Yes20c999.96$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.99520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-70.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39f…8d53backed Yes51c962.75$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.46333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No70c925.55$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.5221959.8%131 W · 88 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6360…1699backed Yes11c903.75$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.41333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked No75c892.28$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.8463021.7%137 W · 493 L+2.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa980…583ebacked Yes2c861.09$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.884337.2%16 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes36c854.99$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.914751%75 W · 72 L+18.0wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+29.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes8c737.77$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4418511.4%21 W · 164 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0acf…edf9backed Yes51c668.99$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.823759.5%22 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No77c654.18$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.3616750.3%84 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes10c648.6$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2515128.5%43 W · 108 L+0.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No71c626.42$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.411558.3%67 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes41c610.62$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.235345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes29c600.3$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.185437%20 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes18c558.86$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.276821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0186…40edbacked No53c556.96$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.269733%32 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4262…0ef2backed Yes38c546.78$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2105119.6%10 W · 41 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick20cpaid+69.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes16c509.74$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.421,04013.7%142 W · 898 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed Yes39c505$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.9516941.4%70 W · 99 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4562412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14557222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x338d…6fd4backed Yes49c496.23$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.421926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-46.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No74c491.27$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.492,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes22c426.57$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.718332.5%27 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes32c402.67$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.8950828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f7…9ed6backed Yes42c401.01$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.673520%7 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-51.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1014037.1%52 W · 88 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes8c351.01$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.991189.3%11 W · 107 L-0.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes35c350.62$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.636940.6%28 W · 41 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86d5…d80abacked Yes5c347.41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.75837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+23.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes14c331.44$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.141,1908.7%104 W · 1,086 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd661…0d4ebacked Yes22c330.87$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4214050%70 W · 70 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No68c310$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.6119053.7%102 W · 88 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc622…e1a4backed Yes18c309.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.95433.3%18 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb614…2a44backed Yes33c306.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011339.8%45 W · 68 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes37c302.04$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3221122.3%47 W · 164 L+0.6wins0.00per pick22cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6d3…71cfbacked No50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1508634.9%30 W · 56 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe50e…45c5backed Yes22c300$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.256939.1%27 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd76d…9457backed Yes37c270.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002835.7%10 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick28cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed No71c265.75$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.4787618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d6…e59ebacked Yes22c254.77$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.851631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…80dabacked No79c250.04$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No66c250$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.230854.9%169 W · 139 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed No72c235$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1787917.2%151 W · 728 L+2.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x186c…f982backed Yes23c223.91$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.55030%15 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes46c220$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.27312.3%9 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd97f…7813backed Yes44c218.3$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.915928.3%45 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6d4…6d35backed Yes9c213.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes15c208.48$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3123222.4%52 W · 180 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.823955.2%132 W · 107 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac5f…d808backed Yes40c200$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.54623.9%11 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes29c192.51$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5635024%84 W · 266 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes26c190$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.420723.7%49 W · 158 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2bf…66c7backed Yes29c186.21$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549628.1%27 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6c7…21cbbacked Yes32c176.11$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.941258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes23c175.01$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2519731%61 W · 136 L+13.8wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes38c173.71$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7449919%95 W · 404 L-1.7wins0.00per pick19cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes40c167.32$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9315136.4%55 W · 96 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeef…9bb9backed No73c165.16$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.163060%18 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7de…537abacked Yes24c163$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.124710.6%5 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick13cpaid+93.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbe3…6599backed Yes24c160.66$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.09540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes32c156.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017126.9%46 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes27c152$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5710143.6%44 W · 57 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.