Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2ca922766c388ebb31e42b3a2620406ad55f931a4859a3b2e3f7013abc8362d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 3c | 11,449$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.92 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 10,035$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.02 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 8,804$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.45 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 13c | 8,217$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.49 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 10c | 7,026$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.77 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,473$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 3c | 3,163$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7111…7c21backed Yes | 8c | 2,939$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.52 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd376…231dbacked Yes | 24c | 2,383$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.86 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 6c | 2,119$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.92 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,024$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,603$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.14 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,593$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 4c | 1,446$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 183 | 4.4%8 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666a…4bf0backed Yes | 4c | 1,446$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 181 | 7.7%14 W · 167 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,290$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.02 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…cf59backed Yes | 2c | 1,044$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 107 | 10.3%11 W · 96 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 16c | 1,028$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.93 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,000$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.79 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 15c | 994.58$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.79 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5285…1cc5backed Yes | 19c | 969.98$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.53 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 7c | 944.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes | 11c | 896.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 78c | 853.6$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.23 | 73 | 71.2%52 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 8c | 850.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4a…fc9bbacked Yes | 11c | 747.62$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 11c | 677.48$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 28c | 662.08$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.21 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 7c | 661.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 3c | 648.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 8c | 623.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes | 18c | 600.77$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 177 | 20.9%37 W · 140 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 8c | 591.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 590.04$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.55 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 19c | 424.34$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 3c | 402.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked No | 77c | 400$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.65 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…ec42backed Yes | 7c | 379.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 15c | 342.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…d18cbacked Yes | 8c | 262.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 16c | 252.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 12c | 214.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7822…46c2backed Yes | 7c | 202.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 345 | 15.9%55 W · 290 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…c878backed Yes | 8c | 190.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…e1a4backed Yes | 20c | 183.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 22c | 159.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…e26cbacked No | 65c | 153.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce80…c5efbacked Yes | 16c | 117.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 109.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 37c | 108$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb65…8a30backed Yes | 13c | 104.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…fdbebacked Yes | 10c | 98.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 205 | 32.7%67 W · 138 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…d5b4backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf67b…1ac0backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee04…c22bbacked Yes | 36c | 56.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0898…9a5bbacked Yes | 29c | 50.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d6…e59ebacked Yes | 28c | 40.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8102…5137backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac4…1819backed Yes | 37c | 37.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 74c | 29.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.