Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed748245068e2d6874733ff72a3f44f2efb9086480c0a7f5809a5085a1078f6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $182,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $195,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 245 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 49c | 10,284$5,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,277.51 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 77c | 8,526$6,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964.4 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa43e…ec90backed No | 49c | 5,750$2,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,795.4 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed Yes | 70c | 4,355$3,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,327.2 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 40c | 4,252$1,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,570.35 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…1ec5backed No | 64c | 3,848$2,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,474.38 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 33c | 3,744$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.8 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 18c | 3,705$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.87 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 45c | 3,436$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.81 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed No | 1c | 3,120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 45c | 3,000$1,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650.88 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 41c | 2,398$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,402.8 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 22c | 2,331$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.54 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked No | 29c | 2,270$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.63 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 23c | 2,123$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.29 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes | 80c | 2,117$1,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.72 | 200 | 9%18 W · 182 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +173%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 2,045$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.45 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 35c | 2,000$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.99 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…1305backed No | 25c | 1,972$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 31c | 1,905$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.9 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 61c | 1,831$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.9 | 105 | 14.3%15 W · 90 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes | 24c | 1,803$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,363.57 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 66c | 1,771$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.94 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7111…7c21backed Yes | 73c | 1,767$1,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.05 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 1c | 1,759$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 24c | 1,710$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.46 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 21c | 1,480$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.87 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 61c | 1,255$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 41c | 1,238$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.4 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 27c | 1,238$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.86 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 43c | 1,237$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.01 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39f…8d53backed Yes | 71c | 1,163$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 53c | 1,126$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.47 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 45c | 1,116$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.15 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 39c | 1,094$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.19 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 74c | 1,094$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.17 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 1,091$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.91 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 69c | 1,077$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.14 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Yes | 69c | 1,057$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.69 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…f50bbacked Yes | 77c | 1,029$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.29 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 49c | 1,011$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.28 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 37c | 1,005$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.81 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 23.5%35 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 949.24$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.48 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 31c | 926.8$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.04 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 16c | 848.58$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.03 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes | 54c | 827.55$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.31 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 55c | 825.23$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.63 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes | 44c | 822$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.6 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked No | 56c | 818.66$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.06 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 45c | 756.57$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.61 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 35c | 756.32$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.61 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 56c | 716.49$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.49 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 4c | 715.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 31c | 706.61$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.32 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked Yes | 30c | 653.87$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.06 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 651.8$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.33 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 42c | 649.15$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.83 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 44c | 627.69$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.1 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 44c | 624.84$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.43 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 61c | 622.4$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.12 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 66c | 606.95$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.5 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 44c | 599.94$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.97 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 559.74$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.65 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 46c | 544.44$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.6 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes | 76c | 528.45$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.45 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed No | 22c | 524.47$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.55 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 36c | 506$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.77 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…23fdbacked Yes | 44c | 499.59$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.77 | 154 | 35.1%54 W · 100 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 42c | 499.5$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.11 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ca…450abacked No | 25c | 498.01$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 312 | 17.3%54 W · 258 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e8…5e90backed Yes | 65c | 460$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 34c | 453.26$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.18 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca2…20e6backed Yes | 68c | 446.54$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.27 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db3…1d38backed No | 50c | 433.7$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 59c | 420.48$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.33 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 406.66$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.59 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 61c | 402.67$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.63 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 30c | 388.7$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.61 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 28c | 350$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.5 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 30c | 346.32$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.01 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 72c | 341.93$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.12 | 73 | 71.2%52 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 5c | 332.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb614…2a44backed Yes | 30c | 332.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.23 | 113 | 39.8%45 W · 68 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed No | 29c | 316.72$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 32c | 312$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 36c | 308.03$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.1 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7039…4a7dbacked No | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ea…3f9abacked No | 78c | 279.75$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 68cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…3a33backed Yes | 74c | 258.48$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea40…2698backed Yes | 41c | 252.5$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.7 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…fbe9backed No | 78c | 235.74$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed No | 7c | 219.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…b9ccbacked No | 51c | 213.8$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.04 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 210$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.99 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe866…90cabacked Yes | 29c | 206.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 15c | 201.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed No | 74c | 200.49$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.67 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4645…59babacked No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…0190backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.