Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb59472499f0dedb791a07d7dfa2fd7fe81ac4c5c6c157764689e3db41adee321
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 3c | 14,126$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.45 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 6c | 5,000$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.99 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 13c | 3,853$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.19 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 6c | 3,379$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.53 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 25c | 3,000$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.95 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 22c | 2,715$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.52 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 27c | 2,458$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.27 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes | 17c | 2,257$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.24 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,972$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 28c | 1,603$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.15 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 7c | 1,568$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.37 | 149 | 23.5%35 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…e7f3backed Yes | 18c | 1,131$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.17 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes | 13c | 787.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 712.3$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.33 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 27c | 637.76$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.2 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe532…f9b9backed Yes | 28c | 620.52$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 26c | 599.98$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 578.41$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.42 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 76c | 573.62$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.55 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 571$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 7c | 563.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 547.37$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.13 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 541.83$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.92 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed No | 79c | 500$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 72c | 476.52$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.43 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9a02backed Yes | 2c | 450$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 19c | 450$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 20c | 420$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 75c | 404.74$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.04 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed No | 75c | 399$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.57 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 78c | 371.42$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.71 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 355.15$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.09 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 67c | 345.48$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.01 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 5c | 338.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed Yes | 30c | 330.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 280$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e46…dc63backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 237.03$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…0217backed Yes | 19c | 215.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…a214backed Yes | 24c | 212.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce0…82d6backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 78c | 200$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a4…fa7abacked Yes | 18c | 197.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 190$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 76c | 183.26$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 180.72$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 180.32$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 73c | 176.49$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 12c | 175$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 150$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 16c | 147.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…f50bbacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 74c | 131.75$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ca…450abacked No | 74c | 131.42$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 312 | 17.3%54 W · 258 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 17c | 122.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 76c | 120$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…2f8abacked Yes | 23c | 115.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d6…e59ebacked Yes | 21c | 101.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0c…df3cbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 280 | 34.3%96 W · 184 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed Yes | 29c | 90.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…8139backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed No | 78c | 85.56$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…a764backed No | 80c | 75.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81d4…3c9fbacked No | 76c | 65.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 74c | 65.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd1…7dbfbacked Yes | 29c | 61.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 80c | 61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4e…f93abacked Yes | 27c | 60.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cf…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 55.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…6587backed Yes | 23c | 52.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 470 | 32.6%153 W · 317 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 31c | 52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 115 | 64.3%74 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 72c | 44.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 227 | 70.9%161 W · 66 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50bd…ee34backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d5…2fecbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4288…00e8backed No | 70c | 38.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…c8a3backed No | 80c | 35.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 223 | 27.8%62 W · 161 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 76c | 28.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…0d4ebacked No | 75c | 25.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4878…dfacbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 141 | 48.2%68 W · 73 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…f6e8backed No | 74c | 20.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x956d…6815backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…2b79backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…a1f1backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2225…bee7backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.