TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,584,578
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,800,683

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,584,578 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,206 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c3a…020bbacked Yes51c412,668$209,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203,333.9521343.2%92 W · 121 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed No52c178,414$93,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93,586.0922139.8%88 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed No49c174,852$85,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85,677.2474752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No48c166,991$80,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80,967.1556541.1%232 W · 333 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9243…658ebacked No49c99,999$48,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,999.3115249.3%75 W · 77 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x087d…b872backed No59c75,000$43,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,933.219845.9%45 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes51c65,033$33,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,829.261,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes55c56,233$30,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,503.638,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No47c52,916$24,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,744.884,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Yes50c40,000$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,00042345.6%193 W · 230 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cbb…f8a3backed Yes50c40,000$20,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,810.579349.5%46 W · 47 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+16.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked No49c39,400$19,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,3069943.4%43 W · 56 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed No48c36,864$17,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,517.993,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c0…1bedbacked No49c35,944$17,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,567.276050%30 W · 30 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+56.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85bb…9adabacked Yes43c34,884$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,883.7232429.9%97 W · 227 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe987…f0e1backed No49c23,000$11,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,199.8738026.6%101 W · 279 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked No50c22,645$11,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,227.92,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked No49c22,200$10,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,8787642.1%32 W · 44 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked No54c20,445$10,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,976.0621333.3%71 W · 142 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6157…9fb4backed Yes51c20,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,799.9512254.1%66 W · 56 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3cb…ac21backed No33c20,000$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,599.9213151.1%67 W · 64 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Yes48c19,972$9,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,372.478952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes51c15,000$7,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,35017544%77 W · 98 L+9.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No25c12,637$3,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,217.793,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked No48c12,000$5,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,759.8629646.3%137 W · 159 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b46…8438backed Yes51c11,716$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,716.29454.3%51 W · 43 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa66c…cd67backed Yes78c11,349$8,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,525.8318047.8%86 W · 94 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked No47c10,545$4,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,960.571,94135.5%690 W · 1,251 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62e0…32dfbacked Yes51c10,303$5,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,096.9817345.1%78 W · 95 L+11.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked No50c10,272$5,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,085.271,87348.4%906 W · 967 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf072…467abacked Yes68c10,226$6,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,253.919446.8%44 W · 50 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09dd…7e13backed Yes53c10,068$5,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,733.4337944.1%167 W · 212 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7164…9db6backed Yes49c9,879$4,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,990.791560%9 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No39c9,284$3,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,651.494,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58bb…c690backed Yes52c9,283$4,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,477.25771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+37.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7349…cc3abacked Yes70c9,272$6,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,775.8820646.1%95 W · 111 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No49c9,233$4,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,523.112,80555.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L+70.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd0b…c5ffbacked Yes57c8,900$5,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,85119150.3%96 W · 95 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1af3…b3b4backed No53c8,710$4,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,573.7220333.5%68 W · 135 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb56d…d621backed Yes67c7,362$4,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,429.463966.7%26 W · 13 L+5.3wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+24.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x29cc…3c29backed No52c7,170$3,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,728.398139.5%32 W · 49 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88f9…325dbacked No56c6,854$3,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,836.534740.4%19 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid+19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98ce…d417backed No49c6,806$3,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3353554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6d0…9391backed Yes51c6,454$3,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,162.468847.7%42 W · 46 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7d9…3271backed Yes51c6,024$3,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,951.7611723.1%27 W · 90 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+69.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Yes50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00016258.6%95 W · 67 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bc8…2f68backed No49c5,987$2,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9358938.2%34 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56f4…9ec5backed No8c5,922$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.1141331%128 W · 285 L+0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Yes47c5,905$2,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,141.5687237.8%330 W · 542 L-39.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c27…f2aabacked Yes50c5,876$2,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,938.0914637.7%55 W · 91 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ad4…6866backed Yes52c5,500$2,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6408435.7%30 W · 54 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Yes69c5,096$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,596.0965948.6%320 W · 339 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c60…f4fcbacked Yes61c5,000$3,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,969.991275%9 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+52.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Yes52c4,749$2,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,285.731,43840.1%576 W · 862 L-40.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cea…03d4backed No49c4,437$2,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,17419250%96 W · 96 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes58c4,326$2,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,806.332,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d7f…694abacked Yes51c4,314$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,113.73450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd91f…59ddbacked No49c4,080$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.21741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed No50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00014433.3%48 W · 96 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce5…9ce1backed Yes51c4,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9601283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+36.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc490…b6debacked Yes52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,919.991040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9caf…94dcbacked Yes51c3,950$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.619440.4%38 W · 56 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes57c3,946$2,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,715.1773536.3%267 W · 468 L-32.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Yes54c3,910$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,809.391,35438.9%527 W · 827 L-55.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes52c3,891$2,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,861.961,56339.8%622 W · 941 L-51.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Yes51c3,784$1,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,838.7865036.9%240 W · 410 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf531…121cbacked Yes48c3,542$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,841.6717944.1%79 W · 100 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7799…ebd7backed Yes51c3,529$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,729.411625%4 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-25.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe45…1116backed Yes51c3,529$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,729.412050%10 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb251…6f5bbacked Yes44c3,500$1,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,94513045.4%59 W · 71 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Yes50c3,375$1,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,671.231,38040.2%555 W · 825 L-51.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfa7…a8e5backed Yes51c3,235$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,585.291050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e3a…55babacked Yes63c3,167$2,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,166.3415044%66 W · 84 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No19c3,097$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.052,63432.9%867 W · 1,767 L+43.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff5…7b5bbacked Yes52c3,044$1,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,455.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e58…5749backed Yes51c3,024$1,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,481.764261.9%26 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed No49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47031851.9%165 W · 153 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked No49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.981,53649.1%754 W · 782 L+32.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1fa…5ee1backed No49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.97520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.37per pick57cpaid-73%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb2ed…4418backed Yes51c2,941$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,441.1812428.2%35 W · 89 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45e4…3c69backed Yes51c2,941$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,441.189649%47 W · 49 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5739…e8b6backed Yes52c2,831$1,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,358.964740.4%19 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No49c2,803$1,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,362.0847648.5%231 W · 245 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf59e…f0bfbacked Yes52c2,778$1,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.5610051%51 W · 49 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Yes72c2,775$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.5930465.1%198 W · 106 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4c3…60d9backed Yes51c2,631$1,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,289.249463.8%60 W · 34 L+12.8wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+33.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd31d…3d13backed Yes50c2,600$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3006741.8%28 W · 39 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Yes50c2,407$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,207.2114351.7%74 W · 69 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06ee…66b5backed Yes50c2,200$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1008647.7%41 W · 45 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0547…9926backed Yes51c2,192$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.9721443%92 W · 122 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked No50c2,159$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.91850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x542e…5352backed Yes51c2,062$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,009.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x502e…5442backed Yes49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.8216746.7%78 W · 89 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7967…f4a0backed Yes51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98013118.3%24 W · 107 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94f1…54a1backed No50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012738.6%49 W · 78 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e47…34a2backed Yes50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0007342.5%31 W · 42 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4c1…6b32backed Yes51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.9820448.5%99 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked Yes51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.7889443.4%388 W · 506 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc32b…d463backed Yes51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b1…e789backed Yes51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.7817053.5%91 W · 79 L+14.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.