Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Japan (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa81390be9273e2283f9be2386d2e29d17fd4a9ff191082f63b810067b9b64c09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brazilof Japan, Brazil
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $326,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $316,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $326,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e0…024ebacked Japan | 1c | 107,891$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.91 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1136…0c2ebacked Japan | 1c | 45,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Japan | 1c | 25,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b5…8b63backed Japan | 1c | 10,833$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa850…9b11backed Japan | 1c | 8,029$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.61 | 152 | 29.6%45 W · 107 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…b44cbacked Japan | 1c | 7,122$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5e…ef23backed Japan | 1c | 6,785$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.73 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Japan | 2c | 5,936$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.72 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Japan | 1c | 5,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef4f…4598backed Japan | 1c | 4,342$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 232 | 36.6%85 W · 147 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4433…9d34backed Japan | 2c | 4,159$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 788 | 35.3%278 W · 510 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Japan | 2c | 3,735$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 1,627 | 32.1%523 W · 1,104 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Japan | 1c | 3,296$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 213 | 33.3%71 W · 142 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Japan | 1c | 3,180$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…e3d9backed Japan | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 8.3%8 W · 88 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac9…92d3backed Japan | 2c | 2,083$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 226 | 22.1%50 W · 176 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1330…b4b5backed Japan | 1c | 1,945$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Japan | 1c | 1,902$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cd…f35fbacked Japan | 3c | 1,786$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Japan | 1c | 1,786$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 174 | 32.8%57 W · 117 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c1…473ebacked Japan | 1c | 1,719$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 513 | 15.6%80 W · 433 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Japan | 2c | 1,613$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 2,271 | 39.5%896 W · 1,375 L | +10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…6fe5backed Japan | 1c | 1,340$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 128 | 25.8%33 W · 95 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d76…92b5backed Japan | 3c | 1,153$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Japan | 2c | 1,044$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 372 | 23.4%87 W · 285 L | -25.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98be…5794backed Japan | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 31.3%36 W · 79 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99b5…0b19backed Japan | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5a…b6b0backed Japan | 1c | 999.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…1760backed Japan | 1c | 994.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 258 | 44.6%115 W · 143 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed Japan | 2c | 972.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa515…b5a1backed Japan | 1c | 861.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Japan | 2c | 528.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848c…2bf0backed Japan | 2c | 482.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 221 | 22.2%49 W · 172 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…1c30backed Japan | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Japan (-2.5)this page
- Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Brazil vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Brazil vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Brazil vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 0.5Over won
- Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5Over won
- Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 2.5Under won
- Brazil vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Brazil vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5Over won
- Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5Under won
- Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5Under won
- Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5Over won
- Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5Over won
- Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5Over won
- Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5Under won
- Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 4.5Under won
- Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 5.5Under won
- Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 6.5Under won
- Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 7.5Under won
- Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5Under won
- Brazil vs. Japan: Team to AdvanceBrazil won
- Spread: Brazil (-1.5)Japan won
- Spread: Brazil (-2.5)Japan won
- Spread: Brazil (-3.5)Japan won
- Spread: Brazil (-4.5)Japan won
- Spread: Brazil (-5.5)Japan won
- Spread: Japan (-1.5)Brazil won
- Spread: Japan (-3.5)Brazil won
- Spread: Japan (-4.5)Brazil won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.