Spread: Brazil (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b5a48a3cd45926dba02e25e5c582be25f89739c94adeee6a91a49d610d023e3

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Japanof Brazil, Japan
Resolved: Jun 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $271,284
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $275,091

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $271,284 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdb85…152fbacked Brazil	13c	38,692$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	187	40.6%76 W · 111 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Brazil	11c	34,330$3,859 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,858.54	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Brazil	9c	10,100$909 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$909	177	48%85 W · 92 L	+7.8wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Brazil	11c	9,196$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	250	19.6%49 W · 201 L	-5.6wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Brazil	12c	8,336$978 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$977.73	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Brazil	11c	7,742$853 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$852.57	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89e6…5501backed Brazil	10c	5,637$564 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$563.7	230	36.1%83 W · 147 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcfb…efc0backed Brazil	10c	5,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	71	29.6%21 W · 50 L	-6.6wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Brazil	7c	4,100$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.01	372	23.4%87 W · 285 L	-25.7wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Brazil	8c	4,100$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.75	1,627	32.1%523 W · 1,104 L	+4.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Brazil	11c	3,568$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392.48	1,044	43.7%456 W · 588 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ac9…92d3backed Brazil	3c	2,549$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.32	226	22.1%50 W · 176 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	+48.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Brazil	14c	2,150$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301	605	11.4%69 W · 536 L	-16.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-38%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Brazil	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	69	39.1%27 W · 42 L	+6.4wins	+0.09per pick	30cpaid	+20%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd325…fd1bbacked Brazil	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	96	30.2%29 W · 67 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Brazil	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	354	46%163 W · 191 L	+7.8wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f41…e6aebacked Brazil	10c	1,857$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.71	88	53.4%47 W · 41 L	+7.1wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+31.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x541c…a7ecbacked Brazil	10c	1,409$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.52	69	18.8%13 W · 56 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-38%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Brazil	3c	1,402$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.33	312	32.4%101 W · 211 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Brazil	3c	1,366$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.82	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2837…e9fabacked Brazil	3c	1,350$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3233…a4ddbacked Brazil	10c	1,200$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	52	40.4%21 W · 31 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbec0…9bddbacked Brazil	4c	1,060$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.56	626	33.9%212 W · 414 L	-28.6wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Brazil	4c	1,048$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.06	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x374e…87c9backed Brazil	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	185	50.3%93 W · 92 L	+12.5wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Brazil	11c	909.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	408	48.8%199 W · 209 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Brazil	11c	909.05$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	158	46.2%73 W · 85 L	+7.1wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9865…57acbacked Brazil	11c	834.64$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.81	109	11%12 W · 97 L	-9.4wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-66%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6fbc…4b80backed Brazil	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f4…2014backed Brazil	10c	800$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.14per pick	36cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaacb…90cbbacked Brazil	13c	703.99$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.56	179	19%34 W · 145 L	+9.1wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0823…ec6abacked Brazil	13c	676.53$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.95	431	39%168 W · 263 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Brazil	9c	663.38$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.11	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed Brazil	11c	545.45$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	301	42.5%128 W · 173 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x387a…8eaebacked Brazil	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	329	28%92 W · 237 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Brazil	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	471	27.8%131 W · 340 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa5c…7cbcbacked Brazil	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.14per pick	31cpaid	-75.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x351d…8574backed Brazil	5c	475$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.75	167	25.7%43 W · 124 L	-5.1wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd546…657bbacked Brazil	12c	473.75$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.85	306	7.8%24 W · 282 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ddc…e1aabacked Brazil	12c	416.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	118	11.9%14 W · 104 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebe6…4fd0backed Brazil	14c	357.14$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	40	32.5%13 W · 27 L	+2.7wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-10%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b7a…86cfbacked Brazil	12c	300$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	234	29.1%68 W · 166 L	-10.4wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6630…3b83backed Brazil	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	49	53.1%26 W · 23 L	+5.5wins	+0.11per pick	42cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0553…e967backed Brazil	13c	236.36$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	120	23.3%28 W · 92 L	-5.2wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0df0…1376backed Brazil	11c	224.66$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	134	56.7%76 W · 58 L	+12.0wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Brazil	12c	211.82$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.42	565	41.1%232 W · 333 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97be…56e4backed Brazil	12c	208.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	39	28.2%11 W · 28 L	-3.5wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-32%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x533b…0a9ebacked Brazil	12c	202$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.24	232	27.6%64 W · 168 L	-12.1wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c42…82debacked Brazil	11c	201.82$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	91	38.5%35 W · 56 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a52…c0e8backed Brazil	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	-4.0wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3416…0c7cbacked Brazil	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d92…4c7abacked Brazil	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	187	36.4%68 W · 119 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc972…f901backed Brazil	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc26a…563cbacked Brazil	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4322…6e29backed Brazil	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e44…f303backed Brazil	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	84	19%16 W · 68 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb78d…835dbacked Brazil	11c	150$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	272	42.3%115 W · 157 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x725e…5ea1backed Brazil	12c	145.83$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.23per pick	52cpaid	+23%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x682a…c87dbacked Brazil	12c	138$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.56	86	39.5%34 W · 52 L	+4.2wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24ee…4e60backed Brazil	12c	114.58$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.75	73	30.1%22 W · 51 L	+5.8wins	+0.08per pick	22cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e8c…79bdbacked Brazil	10c	110$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	274	45.3%124 W · 150 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e0b…9cb1backed Brazil	10c	110$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	69	33.3%23 W · 46 L	+4.4wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa278…3369backed Brazil	10c	103.92$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.47	1,111	24.3%270 W · 841 L	-32.2wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69e4…14e7backed Brazil	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x848c…2bf0backed Brazil	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	221	22.2%49 W · 172 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9461…da06backed Brazil	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x119d…bec3backed Brazil	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	204	32.8%67 W · 137 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Brazil	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	172	27.3%47 W · 125 L	-9.1wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd4a…bd1abacked Brazil	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	30	20%6 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40a1…e17dbacked Brazil	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c35…fb29backed Brazil	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Brazil	12c	86.33$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	1,293	53.6%693 W · 600 L	+12.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f6f…d024backed Brazil	14c	75.57$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.58	774	33.1%256 W · 518 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Brazil (-2.5)this page
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Brazil vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
Brazil vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 0.5Over won
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5Over won
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 2.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5Over won
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5Over won
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5Over won
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5Over won
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 4.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 5.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 6.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 7.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to AdvanceBrazil won
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)Japan won
Spread: Brazil (-3.5)Japan won
Spread: Brazil (-4.5)Japan won
Spread: Brazil (-5.5)Japan won
Spread: Japan (-1.5)Brazil won
Spread: Japan (-2.5)Brazil won
Spread: Japan (-3.5)Brazil won
Spread: Japan (-4.5)Brazil won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Brazil (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event