TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Brazilof Brazil, Japan
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,700,027
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,443,475

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,700,027 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 3,353 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5660…54bfbacked Brazil73c415,828$303,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112,273.58666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Brazil67c355,038$236,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118,767.6974752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc430…1ebfbacked Japan29c260,963$75,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,113.068932.6%29 W · 60 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ac…b964backed Japan27c195,792$52,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,863.835749.1%28 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Japan37c187,816$69,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,915.41,22443.4%531 W · 693 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc41d…74fdbacked Japan35c181,956$63,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63,556.5614139%55 W · 86 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Brazil73c153,844$112,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,537.9336250%181 W · 181 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked Japan27c138,873$37,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,330.7220448%98 W · 106 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x160d…5295backed Japan26c122,232$31,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,574.126546.2%30 W · 35 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8372…5223backed Brazil72c120,000$86,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,599.875451.9%28 W · 26 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x85bb…9adabacked Japan50c119,797$59,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,480.9132429.9%97 W · 227 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d77…bcafbacked Japan26c99,998$26,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,999.593525.7%9 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed Japan29c87,962$25,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,509.4122139.8%88 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Brazil73c80,445$59,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,412.012,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d78…29a5backed Brazil74c65,995$49,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,861.793571.4%25 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+25.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Japan28c61,753$17,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,037.8977152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Brazil72c59,599$42,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,824.281,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Brazil73c58,851$43,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,850.571,25239.2%491 W · 761 L+6.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-20.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Brazil72c53,728$38,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,196.32642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Japan50c52,199$26,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,099.59345.2%42 W · 51 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Brazil72c50,000$36,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,00013742.3%58 W · 79 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1396…62b5backed Japan26c46,337$12,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,047.714540%18 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Brazil56c45,868$25,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,34313738.7%53 W · 84 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Brazil66c45,000$29,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,449.937150.7%36 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cc0…5765backed Japan41c42,565$17,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,606.616152.5%32 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6880…cf03backed Brazil74c40,310$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,309.646048.3%29 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+30.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9753…9d8fbacked Japan28c33,774$9,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,399.288448.8%41 W · 43 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe558…dcd2backed Brazil72c31,624$22,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,981.4315843%68 W · 90 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7a8…580cbacked Brazil42c30,000$12,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,400306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-87.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b87…d7aabacked Japan27c28,842$7,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,787.272948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8325…19ccbacked Brazil66c28,825$19,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,748.3966846.7%312 W · 356 L+45.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6d1…286abacked Japan39c28,000$11,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,039.9917447.1%82 W · 92 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Brazil63c27,975$17,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,316.718,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ae0…f861backed Brazil72c27,778$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,777.781752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd86b…e4e0backed Japan29c27,290$7,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,913.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+37.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36a7…b6e9backed Japan40c27,285$10,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,805.638046.3%37 W · 43 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd604…cb5fbacked Japan26c25,873$6,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,749.9633555.5%186 W · 149 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Japan27c25,000$6,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,75011443%49 W · 65 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59e5…7a2bbacked Brazil73c24,068$17,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,498.378258.5%48 W · 34 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked Japan27c23,700$6,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,398.9920731.4%65 W · 142 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x66ac…0118backed Japan29c22,986$6,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,666175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick20cpaid-82.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd123…d341backed Japan50c22,073$11,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,052.56812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick33cpaid-76%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2299…d23abacked Japan27c21,867$5,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,9052532%8 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0914…9c93backed Japan4c21,793$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.285322.6%12 W · 41 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+27.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Japan29c21,295$6,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,104.0918738%71 W · 116 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Japan28c20,536$5,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,75014620.5%30 W · 116 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Brazil75c20,000$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00036247.2%171 W · 191 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf298…ada5backed Japan30c20,000$5,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,992.826943.5%30 W · 39 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-22.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb87b…3626backed Brazil57c20,000$11,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,599.9924526.5%65 W · 180 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73bc…46cebacked Brazil72c20,000$14,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,599.9917852.2%93 W · 85 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52d8…99aebacked Brazil71c20,000$14,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,799.9716647%78 W · 88 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70ef…e6ddbacked Japan26c20,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,199.9610840.7%44 W · 64 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Japan26c19,999$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,199.8421937%81 W · 138 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Japan28c19,925$5,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,562.6829740.1%119 W · 178 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Brazil72c19,794$14,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,542.252070%14 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x60cc…ff9bbacked Japan28c19,103$5,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,348.926913%9 W · 60 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-58.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb014…a357backed Japan27c19,000$5,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,13015642.9%67 W · 89 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Brazil67c18,984$12,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,175.153,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Brazil58c18,773$10,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,859.132,62641.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L-11.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe80d…4ea7backed Japan27c18,519$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1681…b1c7backed Brazil74c18,500$13,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8107740.3%31 W · 46 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bba…d7b8backed Japan50c18,264$9,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,046.664535.6%16 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7337…fe5ebacked Brazil74c17,611$13,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,516.481330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7c4…affabacked Brazil57c17,424$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,424.242263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x69c9…eac0backed Brazil72c16,501$11,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,620.24450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Brazil61c16,417$10,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,408.1531945.5%145 W · 174 L-0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Brazil49c16,000$7,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,16014715.6%23 W · 124 L-0.3wins0.00per pick16cpaid+19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked Japan26c15,120$4,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,002.584738.3%18 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27b9…90d0backed Japan29c15,083$4,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,376.2516336.2%59 W · 104 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed Japan28c15,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,20025844.6%115 W · 143 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca1…6e18backed Brazil74c14,106$10,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,667.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b6…2fefbacked Brazil71c14,085$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,084.513971.8%28 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+13.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xba38…fb57backed Brazil74c14,000$10,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6401172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked Brazil72c13,911$10,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,862.5612454.8%68 W · 56 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7efe…2e32backed Brazil71c13,787$9,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,998.281464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf387…61c0backed Brazil58c12,926$7,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,477.2334964.5%225 W · 124 L+73.5wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+123.1%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0x3ca9…698dbacked Brazil70c12,893$9,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,880.271861.1%11 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Brazil69c12,667$8,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,871.147653.9%41 W · 35 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf742…e039backed Brazil49c12,500$6,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,324.9726447.7%126 W · 138 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Brazil73c12,330$9,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,329.215080%40 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+12.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4810…289abacked Brazil72c12,029$8,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,368.224151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Japan28c12,000$3,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,359.998134.6%28 W · 53 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-34.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed Brazil73c12,000$8,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,239.9913240.2%53 W · 79 L-0.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7799…ebd7backed Japan27c11,852$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2001625%4 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-25.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Japan30c11,067$3,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,283.5956541.1%232 W · 333 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c42…19dcbacked Brazil49c11,046$5,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,607.38650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbfb…18f4backed Japan32c10,914$3,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,442.72425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd888…3c9fbacked Japan50c10,657$5,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,311.013234.4%11 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92eb…9fcdbacked Japan43c10,387$4,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,498.6719738.1%75 W · 122 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+57.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Brazil72c10,292$7,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,843.621343.2%92 W · 121 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76aa…eff9backed Japan41c10,204$4,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,155.6425753.3%137 W · 120 L+23.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+17.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd97d…6bf4backed Brazil42c10,000$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,8001850%9 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf96c…5580backed Brazil70c10,000$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,999.98771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Japan29c10,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,899.984355.8%24 W · 19 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x072f…ffddbacked Japan57c10,000$5,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,699.928450%42 W · 42 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-22.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4154…e7a8backed Japan53c10,000$5,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,339.9129633.4%99 W · 197 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe987…f0e1backed Japan26c10,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.9638026.6%101 W · 279 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd914…0d9abacked Brazil72c9,944$7,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,784.448028.8%23 W · 57 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb715…c3bbbacked Japan29c9,480$2,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,749.114425%11 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd92b…1b1bbacked Brazil52c9,367$4,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,535.74966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.