Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x037fec94fbf5e6963aa8a056bade85dd27c79ac1a25f24b523aa53105eb38160

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $52,031
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $48,791

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,031 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb4d2…ce99backed Over	17c	8,087$1,341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,341.3	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over	10c	3,308$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.67	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	15c	3,112$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460.67	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Over	20c	1,947$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$389.31	2,271	39.5%896 W · 1,375 L	+10.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over	15c	1,821$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.05	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over	3c	1,250$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.7	1,492	41%612 W · 880 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under	80c	1,230$984 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245.95	3,213	47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under	80c	1,219$970 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$248.57	3,077	47%1,447 W · 1,630 L	-11.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc63e…e611backed Over	17c	1,191$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	42	38.1%16 W · 26 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	33cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe65e…b719backed Over	9c	1,111$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	170	40%68 W · 102 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae4…273ebacked Over	21c	1,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	93	54.8%51 W · 42 L	+5.6wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Over	20c	1,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	354	46%163 W · 191 L	+7.8wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc72…2888backed Over	20c	800$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	272	27.6%75 W · 197 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e26…8991backed Over	9c	722.22$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	161	36%58 W · 103 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07ce…db5cbacked Over	11c	705.05$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.55	72	30.6%22 W · 50 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over	14c	691.09$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.38	1,627	32.1%523 W · 1,104 L	+4.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Over	39c	602$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.86	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd220…fc0bbacked Over	21c	545.76$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.61	104	32.7%34 W · 70 L	-7.6wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4b1…e077backed Under	79c	500$395 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d87…0f1abacked Under	79c	500$395 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.8wins	+0.10per pick	48cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ef…b630backed Under	48c	424.38$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220.68	52	36.5%19 W · 33 L	+8.0wins	+0.15per pick	21cpaid	+51.2%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x351d…8574backed Over	17c	374.77$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.71	167	25.7%43 W · 124 L	-5.1wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Under	80c	300$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	673	54.7%368 W · 305 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x387a…8eaebacked Over	20c	300$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	329	28%92 W · 237 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2305…04f2backed Over	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	44	15.9%7 W · 37 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over	14c	259.16$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.24	1,669	41.6%694 W · 975 L	+15.9wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cff…ce54backed Over	21c	257.14$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	73	49.3%36 W · 37 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea0d…e1c3backed Over	20c	250$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdec4…046fbacked Over	20c	250$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	345	26.1%90 W · 255 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb36e…538fbacked Over	20c	246.95$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.39	108	45.4%49 W · 59 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Over	22c	239.17$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.9	1,438	40.1%576 W · 862 L	-40.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaef…8204backed Over	22c	227.27$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.24per pick	44cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x155d…3ec8backed Over	20c	200$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	255	32.9%84 W · 171 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd74…bedabacked Over	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	139	36%50 W · 89 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd18d…fc51backed Over	12c	199.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	105	34.3%36 W · 69 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	7c	189.21$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.24	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under	79c	181.34$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.31	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	20c	176.03$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.53	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Under	80c	170$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.7	1,795	44.2%794 W · 1,001 L	-12.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Under	78c	162.86$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.83	1,536	49.1%754 W · 782 L	+32.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0a2…b58ebacked Over	22c	162.86$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.83	70	22.9%16 W · 54 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Over	18c	154$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.06	83	18.1%15 W · 68 L	-5.0wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4a2…7d30backed Over	20c	150$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.4wins	+0.14per pick	56cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67a7…d779backed Over	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-2.8wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd419…3f03backed Over	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	90	37.8%34 W · 56 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde7c…2342backed Over	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c3b…6b17backed Over	17c	99.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2ab…0dc8backed Over	21c	95.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	165	35.2%58 W · 107 L	-8.6wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x660e…76ccbacked Over	21c	93.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.72	192	41.1%79 W · 113 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Over	44c	92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.22	650	36.9%240 W · 410 L	-27.9wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-28%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd468…f6febacked Over	22c	86.36$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	87	40.2%35 W · 52 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Over	20c	70$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	1,293	53.6%693 W · 600 L	+12.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe27b…83e2backed Over	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under	76c	43.12$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.16	2,793	46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L	-10.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Under	80c	33.33$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.72	1,313	48.9%642 W · 671 L	+12.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Under	80c	25.71$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.18	1,390	46.3%644 W · 746 L	+20.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1ab…faadbacked Under	80c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	104	65.4%68 W · 36 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	61cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	77c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.6	2,533	46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L	+12.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc155…e36bbacked Under	79c	18$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.78	785	59.7%469 W · 316 L	+25.8wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 2.5this page
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Brazil vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
Brazil vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 0.5Over won
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5Over won
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5Over won
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5Over won
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5Over won
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5Over won
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 4.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 5.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 6.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 7.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5Under won
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to AdvanceBrazil won
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)Japan won
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)Japan won
Spread: Brazil (-3.5)Japan won
Spread: Brazil (-4.5)Japan won
Spread: Brazil (-5.5)Japan won
Spread: Japan (-1.5)Brazil won
Spread: Japan (-2.5)Brazil won
Spread: Japan (-3.5)Brazil won
Spread: Japan (-4.5)Brazil won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event