Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1013f82152f16d764dfb2f27761faf67168892ad257eb395467969287398735
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $234,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $234,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 17c | 8,226$1,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.54 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed No | 80c | 8,078$6,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.02 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 19c | 6,980$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,335.42 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 6,790$3,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,492.68 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 3c | 6,723$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.83 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 21c | 5,395$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.84 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 58c | 5,350$3,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,081.38 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 5,346$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.74 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 66c | 5,288$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…2050backed Yes | 38c | 5,210$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,959.91 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 43c | 4,428$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,889.58 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 5c | 4,302$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.17 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd376…231dbacked Yes | 58c | 4,165$2,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,426.42 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 1c | 3,901$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x666a…4bf0backed Yes | 1c | 3,845$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 181 | 7.7%14 W · 167 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 8c | 3,743$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.09 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 6c | 2,863$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.88 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 2,812$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.97 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 2,718$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.22 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4a…fc9bbacked Yes | 40c | 2,684$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.05 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 38c | 2,200$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.67 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 2c | 2,121$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 9c | 2,022$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.21 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,982$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.3 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 27c | 1,902$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.98 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 15c | 1,860$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.02 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,821$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.52 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e0…44e0backed Yes | 1c | 1,806$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 1,787$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.17 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,591$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 278 | 5%14 W · 264 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 74c | 1,475$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.46 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,468$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.98 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 41c | 1,456$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.89 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed No | 69c | 1,448$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.56 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 1,432$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.4 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 1,398$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.04 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed Yes | 2c | 1,339$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,327$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.39 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 4c | 1,300$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 46c | 1,295$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.7 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 20c | 1,229$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.09 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes | 64c | 1,165$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.03 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,079$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.12 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 7c | 1,060$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 5c | 1,016$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 32c | 901.97$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.74 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed No | 40c | 889.93$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.86 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 12c | 844.13$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.06 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 16c | 800$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.85 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 8c | 789.34$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.72 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked Yes | 12c | 750$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes | 60c | 742.66$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.57 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 9c | 730$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 19c | 705.85$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.92 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 14c | 700$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 63c | 656.07$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.11 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 42c | 649.8$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.74 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 61c | 612.32$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.65 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 50c | 583.55$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.44 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986d…b351backed Yes | 8c | 577.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 34c | 577.08$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.04 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7111…7c21backed Yes | 77c | 535.18$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.85 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 11c | 529.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…f5e2backed Yes | 4c | 527.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes | 73c | 500$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.97 | 200 | 9%18 W · 182 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +173%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…3c62backed No | 59c | 493.62$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 2c | 487.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 475$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.68 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 4c | 454.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 5c | 431$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 3c | 418.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes | 69c | 400.94$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.2 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 11c | 398.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Yes | 64c | 385.37$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.38 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 35c | 384.4$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.22 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…9188backed Yes | 63c | 373.25$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…ec42backed Yes | 3c | 372.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d6…e59ebacked Yes | 14c | 332.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 326.29$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.67 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe43d…3978backed Yes | 16c | 299.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 45c | 297$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.2 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes | 5c | 295.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 177 | 20.9%37 W · 140 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 11c | 292.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 277.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b44…9287backed Yes | 75c | 262.41$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.85 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 22c | 254.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…a34dbacked Yes | 20c | 252.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…c878backed Yes | 22c | 224.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 220.84$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.17 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 36c | 211.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.42 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 34c | 207.82$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…a09dbacked Yes | 5c | 205.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb614…2a44backed Yes | 25c | 203.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 113 | 39.8%45 W · 68 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 17c | 194.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 26c | 190.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 56c | 181.25$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.