Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b6cbd6a5b22648c8938d849c0304ec5cb0d600c674824ee755848a4ae699c79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x913f…c676backed No | 75c | 9,754$7,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,399.51 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 14c | 5,857$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.11 | 183 | 4.4%8 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 29c | 5,813$1,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,664.45 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 43c | 4,309$1,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,851.27 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 34c | 3,271$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.96 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x666a…4bf0backed Yes | 3c | 2,500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 181 | 7.7%14 W · 167 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 19c | 2,273$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.4 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 79c | 2,255$1,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.92 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4827…7d38backed Yes | 56c | 2,192$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.57 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -72%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 23c | 2,175$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.86 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 25c | 2,026$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.99 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7111…7c21backed Yes | 30c | 2,003$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 10c | 1,966$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.17 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 21c | 1,839$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.44 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 60c | 1,827$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.94 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 33c | 1,461$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.88 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes | 49c | 1,436$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 52c | 1,164$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.46 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df4…c7cbbacked No | 47c | 1,111$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.64 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5285…1cc5backed Yes | 35c | 1,110$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.33 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes | 22c | 1,007$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.77 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 964.84$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.93 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 29c | 911.81$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked No | 73c | 890.05$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.05 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 59c | 878.49$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.28 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 71c | 856.48$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.69 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 40c | 846.5$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.6 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 845.9$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 38c | 800.78$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.37 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 21c | 754.52$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.11 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 18c | 750$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed Yes | 14c | 748.62$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.72 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 735.28$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.08 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 48c | 726.5$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.72 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…2bcfbacked No | 59c | 712.21$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.17 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed No | 53c | 709.8$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.21 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 67c | 650.8$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.48 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb816…9e90backed No | 54c | 629.35$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.4 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 56c | 600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.19 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 21c | 596.54$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.99 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 20c | 500.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.06 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 56c | 479.3$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.94 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…71b3backed Yes | 10c | 472.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 43c | 470.08$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.26 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc06…8d59backed Yes | 30c | 445.63$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea40…2698backed Yes | 36c | 433.12$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.29 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 67c | 421.96$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.72 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked No | 54c | 400$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.1 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked No | 68c | 396.49$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.02 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 23c | 396.49$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.13 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 24c | 383$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.92 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7039…4a7dbacked No | 69c | 362.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.39 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked No | 68c | 359.99$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 57c | 348.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.51 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 46c | 345.93$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.65 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…f50bbacked Yes | 59c | 340$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 45c | 335$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.75 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3c…1f3ebacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f7…9ed6backed No | 71c | 328.97$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.41 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 310$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.3 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e0…44e0backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 14c | 296.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 250 | 12.8%32 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 22c | 292.64$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 21c | 281.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 70c | 258.83$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes | 23c | 258.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 177 | 20.9%37 W · 140 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd618…cce6backed Yes | 14c | 251.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked No | 42c | 238.09$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.28 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 232.59$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d4…3c9fbacked Yes | 56c | 222.88$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.81 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 57c | 218.08$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.83 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 17c | 212.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb614…2a44backed Yes | 23c | 208.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 113 | 39.8%45 W · 68 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b27…7908backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 97 | 27.8%27 W · 70 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a0…fb10backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 140 | 26.4%37 W · 103 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 184.07$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…e7f3backed Yes | 47c | 183.18$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.01 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd249…e74cbacked No | 69c | 179.45$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 67c | 170.33$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 169$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.46 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d6…e59ebacked Yes | 27c | 165.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc99e…3853backed No | 79c | 160$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 197 | 22.8%45 W · 152 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe207…9f79backed Yes | 57c | 157.11$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.72 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 49c | 156.21$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.9 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 52c | 152.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 71c | 152.03$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 70c | 148$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 148$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.72 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes | 16c | 135.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 58c | 127.52$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed No | 73c | 123$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 64c | 115.47$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.77 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked No | 69c | 108.69$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca6…0ae3backed Yes | 18c | 105.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 189 | 39.2%74 W · 115 L | +15.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 70c | 104$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes | 62c | 102.39$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.