TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$131,494
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$123,639

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,494 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x913f…c676backed No75c9,754$7,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.5110043%43 W · 57 L-7.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-31.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes14c5,857$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.111834.4%8 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+235.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes29c5,813$1,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,664.4522325.1%56 W · 167 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes43c4,309$1,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,851.2716222.2%36 W · 126 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes4c3,300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13218511.4%21 W · 164 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes34c3,271$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.9653522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes3c2,500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801817.7%14 W · 167 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes19c2,273$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.41,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No79c2,255$1,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.9256429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4827…7d38backed Yes56c2,192$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.57128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.24per pick32cpaid-72%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes23c2,175$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.8639723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes25c2,026$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.9988018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7111…7c21backed Yes30c2,003$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes10c1,966$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.1718726.7%50 W · 137 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes21c1,839$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.441,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No60c1,827$1,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.9422160.2%133 W · 88 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes33c1,461$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.8857621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes49c1,436$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7008332.5%27 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked No52c1,164$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.4663821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0df4…c7cbbacked No47c1,111$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.645567.3%37 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5285…1cc5backed Yes35c1,110$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.332725.9%7 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-28.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes22c1,007$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.773818.4%7 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No57c964.84$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.9318949.2%93 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes29c911.81$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26123222.4%52 W · 180 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked No73c890.05$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.0514037.1%52 W · 88 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No59c878.49$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.2820857.2%119 W · 89 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No71c856.48$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.6915844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes40c846.5$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.633422.2%74 W · 260 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes11c845.9$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8376821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes38c800.78$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.3750828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes21c754.52$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.1188017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes18c750$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.531242.9%134 W · 178 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e714backed Yes14c748.62$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.728324.1%20 W · 63 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No57c735.28$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.0838848.5%188 W · 200 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0acf…edf9backed Yes48c726.5$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.723759.5%22 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5ab…2bcfbacked No59c712.21$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.175345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed No53c709.8$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.2134425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes67c650.8$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.4833527.8%93 W · 242 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb816…9e90backed No54c629.35$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.46033.3%20 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+74.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes56c600$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.195437%20 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes21c596.54$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.9915136.4%55 W · 96 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes20c500.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0619930.7%61 W · 138 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes56c479.3$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.9411932.8%39 W · 80 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1bc…71b3backed Yes10c472.94$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.07333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-57.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes43c470.08$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.2642424.5%104 W · 320 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc06…8d59backed Yes30c445.63$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.69333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea40…2698backed Yes36c433.12$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.294337.2%16 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No67c421.96$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.7227647.8%132 W · 144 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked No54c400$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.117335.3%61 W · 112 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked No68c396.49$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.0219215.6%30 W · 162 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-53.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes23c396.49$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.131,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda00…61b4backed Yes24c383$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.921931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7039…4a7dbacked No69c362.55$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.392347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked No68c359.99$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.421222.2%47 W · 165 L+0.5wins0.00per pick22cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed No57c348.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.5116941.4%70 W · 99 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes46c345.93$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.6546137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ba8…f50bbacked Yes59c340$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes45c335$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.7543719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3c…1f3ebacked Yes30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002040%8 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-27.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd7f7…9ed6backed No71c328.97$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.413520%7 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-51.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No58c310$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.210151.5%52 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.357222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e0…44e0backed Yes4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124615.2%7 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes14c296.52$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8725012.8%32 W · 218 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes22c292.64$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2934215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes21c281.93$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No70c258.83$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6510144.6%45 W · 56 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes23c258.39$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6017720.9%37 W · 140 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd618…cce6backed Yes14c251.35$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3260%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6d3…71cfbacked No42c238.09$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.288634.9%30 W · 56 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No67c232.59$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.610556.2%59 W · 46 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81d4…3c9fbacked Yes56c222.88$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.812114.3%3 W · 18 L-3.4wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-44%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No57c218.08$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.8316750.3%84 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes17c212.12$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0623019.1%44 W · 186 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb614…2a44backed Yes23c208.7$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4711339.8%45 W · 68 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b27…7908backed Yes53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1069727.8%27 W · 70 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+67.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5a0…fb10backed No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4414026.4%37 W · 103 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7015929.6%47 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No56c184.07$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.1851845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54fb…e7f3backed Yes47c183.18$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.011711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd249…e74cbacked No69c179.45$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.631428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No67c170.33$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3911558.3%67 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No49c169$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.4630955%170 W · 139 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d6…e59ebacked Yes27c165.31$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.71631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed No79c160$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8619722.8%45 W · 152 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe207…9f79backed Yes57c157.11$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.721936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd97f…7813backed Yes49c156.21$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.915928.3%45 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes52c152.4$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.562,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed No71c152.03$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.562729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-50.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No70c148$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.42045%9 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No45c148$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.7219053.7%102 W · 88 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes16c135.8$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7310521.9%23 W · 82 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No58c127.52$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.987458.1%43 W · 31 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe50e…45c5backed No73c123$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.86939.1%27 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes64c115.47$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7732529.2%95 W · 230 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39b2…157cbacked No69c108.69$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.692100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+74.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ca6…0ae3backed Yes18c105.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0718939.2%74 W · 115 L+15.8wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked No70c104$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.22352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes62c102.39$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.55954.2%32 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494951%25 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.