Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d100651305063d86c7d01ec51afa99902cc9f39af6d78633af210e892e338b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 77c | 5,000$3,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.56 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,312$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 24c | 4,062$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.42 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 27c | 3,801$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.6 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 20c | 2,593$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.14 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,467$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 200 | 9%18 W · 182 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +173%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 17c | 2,371$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.68 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes | 21c | 2,270$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.38 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,964$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.55 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 1,955$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…0985backed Yes | 20c | 1,827$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.97 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4982…fe01backed No | 79c | 1,589$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.84 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 1,430$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.09 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38d…83d6backed No | 78c | 1,331$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.83 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b27…7908backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 97 | 27.8%27 W · 70 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7822…46c2backed Yes | 22c | 1,137$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.55 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,011$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.24 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 19c | 800.04$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.69 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…e7f3backed Yes | 15c | 670$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 22c | 603.94$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.79 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 5c | 600$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 29c | 599.97$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.99 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1c…3106backed Yes | 27c | 537.71$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 29c | 526.36$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.89 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 12c | 524.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 74c | 524.67$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.5 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 18c | 498.48$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.38 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9a02backed Yes | 2c | 495.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 70c | 393.32$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.12 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 3c | 381.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd527…cb8abacked Yes | 23c | 304.33$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed No | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 24c | 267.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.01 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 17c | 266.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 265.14$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.69 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 231.33$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 26c | 225.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…183bbacked Yes | 19c | 222.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad0c…df3cbacked No | 76c | 199.98$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 280 | 34.3%96 W · 184 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 19c | 180.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 75c | 149.5$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 10c | 141.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…0217backed Yes | 30c | 136.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 77c | 134.91$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 77c | 116.24$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 71c | 111$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 21c | 100.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 69c | 100.02$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671f…b191backed No | 69c | 99.62$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58cb…3cd6backed Yes | 21c | 98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 100 | 24%24 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…5df8backed Yes | 29c | 91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 20c | 88.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…c9adbacked No | 71c | 88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed No | 70c | 79.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf5…c74bbacked Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…3e2bbacked Yes | 16c | 75.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339d…06dabacked Yes | 25c | 63.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…9bc4backed Yes | 30c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0aa…13b3backed Yes | 27c | 57.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x166f…dcfebacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…67b8backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e3…9208backed No | 78c | 47.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…1537backed Yes | 23c | 47.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 159 | 18.9%30 W · 129 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 76c | 47.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 42.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb8…409fbacked No | 70c | 42.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…1316backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7639…696abacked Yes | 29c | 39.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf14f…873ebacked Yes | 33c | 33.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…af42backed No | 77c | 32.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebd…f8afbacked No | 71c | 32.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…ee73backed Yes | 33c | 30.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 30.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…e65cbacked No | 71c | 28.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f6…d1d3backed No | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…3d0fbacked No | 77c | 18.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 76c | 16.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcc…59aabacked No | 67c | 14.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…e9d5backed No | 67c | 14.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e7…81a9backed No | 69c | 14.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…331dbacked No | 71c | 14.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…f25cbacked No | 71c | 14.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…edd1backed No | 71c | 14.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.