Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6346b6a2319b7647ec7ed301183b54fe3891f55dfe6375e8eecf96b2aa51b3ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $215,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $209,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 32c | 11,012$3,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,434.67 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 6,621$3,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,806.68 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed No | 56c | 6,200$3,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,489.7 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed Yes | 59c | 5,766$3,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,385.93 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…1305backed No | 68c | 5,139$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 13c | 5,091$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.3 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 6c | 4,339$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,088.51 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 62c | 3,632$2,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375.83 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed No | 42c | 3,577$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.29 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked No | 79c | 3,420$2,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,690.03 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7111…7c21backed Yes | 55c | 3,102$1,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406.84 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 28c | 3,086$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,233.95 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 44c | 2,931$1,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640.23 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 2,733$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410.53 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 6c | 2,708$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.56 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0df4…c7cbbacked No | 46c | 2,669$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.12 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 22c | 2,584$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,003.91 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 38c | 2,317$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.04 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 47c | 2,200$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.13 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes | 39c | 2,002$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.67 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 1,946$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.68 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,926$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,517.68 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4a…fc9bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,904$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.51 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 1,763$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.14 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 30c | 1,693$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.01 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked No | 76c | 1,680$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.99 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 1,597$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.49 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,573$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.52 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 55c | 1,529$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.07 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 1,504$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.4 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 43c | 1,479$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.49 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 70c | 1,454$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.7 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 57c | 1,395$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.56 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 32c | 1,360$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.78 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 40c | 1,301$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.16 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 24c | 1,267$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.96 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 66c | 1,232$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.6 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 44c | 1,231$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.21 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 52c | 1,222$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.51 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…0a06backed Yes | 25c | 1,206$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.62 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 43c | 1,167$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.03 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 16c | 1,120$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.19 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +10.0wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 34c | 1,119$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.58 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 61c | 1,110$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.79 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 52c | 1,077$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.01 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 39c | 1,060$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.87 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…1ec5backed No | 49c | 1,012$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.88 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 64c | 1,003$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.34 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…2050backed Yes | 29c | 989.99$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.31 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 982.83$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.76 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 976.17$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.63 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 55c | 937.26$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.27 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 3c | 800$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.4 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 782.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.58 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f7…9ed6backed No | 77c | 782.37$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.54 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 35c | 773$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.75 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes | 38c | 760.08$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.57 | 200 | 9%18 W · 182 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +173%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed No | 6c | 700$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 16c | 698.27$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.37 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 59c | 677.66$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.44 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…fb52backed Yes | 4c | 672.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +267.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 51c | 642.99$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.47 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 23c | 638.63$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.09 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 17c | 609.33$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.77 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5285…1cc5backed Yes | 19c | 539.95$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.42 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 22c | 520.42$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.53 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…cf59backed Yes | 8c | 479.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.76 | 107 | 10.3%11 W · 96 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…9188backed Yes | 75c | 467.39$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 15c | 461.81$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.68 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…f50bbacked Yes | 65c | 460.81$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.81 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked Yes | 22c | 459.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.61 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Yes | 80c | 436.5$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.09 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 20c | 428.88$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.06 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b44…9287backed Yes | 73c | 403.04$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.85 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7822…46c2backed Yes | 21c | 400.93$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.73 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.5 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca2…20e6backed Yes | 73c | 400$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…dbe1backed No | 27c | 400$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 51c | 388$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.46 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed No | 72c | 376.53$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.24 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…3eebbacked Yes | 28c | 355.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 25c | 351.01$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.81 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes | 29c | 347.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.73 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 35c | 333.17$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.55 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed Yes | 23c | 318.93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.86 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes | 28c | 318.15$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.15 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 20c | 314.86$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.08 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 36c | 309$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.45 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc99e…3853backed No | 31c | 300$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 197 | 22.8%45 W · 152 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed No | 48c | 299.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 54c | 297$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.54 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 10c | 291.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.66 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 5c | 291.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.93 | 559 | 8.2%46 W · 513 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…ec42backed Yes | 4c | 286.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.04 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a67…65c8backed Yes | 23c | 280$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes | 6c | 270.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.91 | 177 | 20.9%37 W · 140 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed No | 70c | 269.99$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.59 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 69c | 267.68$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 41c | 265.58$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.04 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe207…9f79backed Yes | 35c | 260.82$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.43 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.