TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$215,872
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$209,602

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,872 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes32c11,012$3,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,434.6753522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No57c6,621$3,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,806.6818949.2%93 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x696e…1c38backed No56c6,200$3,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,489.79233.7%31 W · 61 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x913f…c676backed Yes59c5,766$3,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,385.9310043%43 W · 57 L-7.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-31.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x42b8…1305backed No68c5,139$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5005944.1%26 W · 33 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No13c5,091$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.362539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes6c4,339$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,088.5119819.7%39 W · 159 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes62c3,632$2,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,375.8322325.1%56 W · 167 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e714backed No42c3,577$1,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,497.298324.1%20 W · 63 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked No79c3,420$2,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,690.0322023.6%52 W · 168 L+1.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7111…7c21backed Yes55c3,102$1,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.841844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes28c3,086$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,233.9588018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes44c2,931$1,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,640.2356817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes48c2,733$1,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410.5376821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No6c2,708$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.5639518.7%74 W · 321 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-60.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x0df4…c7cbbacked No46c2,669$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.125567.3%37 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes22c2,584$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,003.9133527.8%93 W · 242 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No38c2,317$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.0412411.3%14 W · 110 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-69.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes47c2,200$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.1350828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes39c2,002$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.678332.5%27 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No54c1,946$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.6810556.2%59 W · 46 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes21c1,926$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,517.6839723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa4a…fc9bbacked Yes19c1,904$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,543.519035.6%32 W · 58 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No55c1,763$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.1410151.5%52 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes30c1,693$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.0157621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked No76c1,680$1,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,280.9919215.6%30 W · 162 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-53.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No66c1,597$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.4919053.7%102 W · 88 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes24c1,573$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,188.5218511.4%21 W · 164 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No55c1,529$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.0716750.3%84 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No53c1,504$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.438848.5%188 W · 200 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes43c1,479$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.491,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No70c1,454$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.711558.3%67 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed Yes57c1,395$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.5616941.4%70 W · 99 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No32c1,360$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.7810143.6%44 W · 57 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes40c1,301$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.1623222.4%52 W · 180 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes24c1,267$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.9688017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked No66c1,232$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.663821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes44c1,231$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.2142424.5%104 W · 320 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed No52c1,222$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.5114751%75 W · 72 L+18.0wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+29.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xedc1…0a06backed Yes25c1,206$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.622846.4%13 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No43c1,167$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.0322160.2%133 W · 88 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes16c1,120$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.1911418.4%21 W · 93 L+10.0wins+0.09per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes34c1,119$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.5816222.2%36 W · 126 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes61c1,110$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.7943719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes52c1,077$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.016026.7%16 W · 44 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes39c1,060$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.8715929.6%47 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5381…1ec5backed No49c1,012$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.885545.5%25 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes64c1,003$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.3470616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eed…2050backed Yes29c989.99$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.3110629.2%31 W · 75 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No62c982.83$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.7620857.2%119 W · 89 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c976.17$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.632,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes55c937.26$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.2741230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes3c800$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.479811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes5c782.67$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.582,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f7…9ed6backed No77c782.37$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.543520%7 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-51.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes35c773$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.7517335.3%61 W · 112 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes38c760.08$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.572009%18 W · 182 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+173%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed No6c700$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.412421.8%27 W · 97 L+11.8wins+0.10per pick12cpaid+49.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes16c698.27$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.371,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No59c677.66$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.4456429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa894…fb52backed Yes4c672.95$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.951060%6 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+267.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes51c642.99$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.4711932.8%39 W · 80 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes23c638.63$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.0919930.7%61 W · 138 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes17c609.33$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.7714427.1%39 W · 105 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+17.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5285…1cc5backed Yes19c539.95$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.422725.9%7 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-28.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes22c520.42$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.535024%12 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes8c479.55$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.7610710.3%11 W · 96 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+74.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4af8…9188backed Yes75c467.39$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.39475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes15c461.81$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.681,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ba8…f50bbacked Yes65c460.81$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.812458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6d3…71cfbacked Yes22c459.76$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.618634.9%30 W · 56 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe50e…45c5backed Yes80c436.5$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.096939.1%27 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes20c428.88$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.0615817.7%28 W · 130 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b44…9287backed Yes73c403.04$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.853426.5%9 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-43.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7822…46c2backed Yes21c400.93$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.733740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.557222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeca2…20e6backed Yes73c400$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.27251.4%37 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x544a…dbe1backed No27c400$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.411831.4%37 W · 81 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked No51c388$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.4620735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed No72c376.53$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.2434425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2573…3eebbacked Yes28c355.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+67.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes25c351.01$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.8165311%72 W · 581 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes29c347.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.732128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes35c333.17$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.5540719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe62e…cc81backed Yes23c318.93$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.8616741.3%69 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes28c318.15$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.1513215.9%21 W · 111 L+0.5wins0.00per pick16cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes20c314.86$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.081,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes36c309$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.4517126.9%46 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed No31c300$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7519722.8%45 W · 152 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc011…0a62backed No48c299.99$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14410543.8%46 W · 59 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No54c297$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.5421063.3%133 W · 77 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+30.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes10c291.95$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.6635024%84 W · 266 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes5c291.09$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.935598.2%46 W · 513 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68ff…ec42backed Yes4c286.61$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.049018.9%17 W · 73 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a67…65c8backed Yes23c280$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+116.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes6c270.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.9117720.9%37 W · 140 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed No70c269.99$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.5982714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes69c267.68$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.9818726.7%50 W · 137 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes41c265.58$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.0431242.9%134 W · 178 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe207…9f79backed Yes35c260.82$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.431936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.