Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75d044bea88399e10da2b8f6231a302cc71762b32d643f988ce89050b5eda2ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 2c | 7,840$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.3 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 48c | 3,801$1,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,817.66 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 53c | 3,256$1,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,515.39 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 11c | 2,772$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.94 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 72c | 2,725$1,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.7 | 73 | 71.2%52 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 25c | 2,636$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.13 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 6c | 2,541$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.81 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes | 4c | 2,441$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.06 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 20c | 2,296$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.04 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 45c | 2,090$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.66 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 8c | 2,015$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.34 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 47c | 1,981$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.77 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…2bcfbacked No | 76c | 1,829$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.94 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 79c | 1,711$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.15 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,543$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd26a…732cbacked Yes | 36c | 1,403$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 124 | 35.5%44 W · 80 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked No | 77c | 1,305$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.36 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 1,200$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 1,099$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.75 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,055$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.95 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b27…7908backed Yes | 13c | 900$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 97 | 27.8%27 W · 70 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked No | 63c | 802.4$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.69 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 10c | 778.78$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 17c | 764.73$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.96 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 25c | 743.29$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.33 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df4…c7cbbacked No | 69c | 723$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.13 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 19c | 709.88$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.45 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 78c | 705.05$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.48 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 15c | 642.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 24c | 632.85$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.61 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 26c | 618.3$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.53 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 7c | 610$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…e7f3backed Yes | 33c | 589.03$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.84 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 7c | 514.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 183 | 4.4%8 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666a…4bf0backed Yes | 4c | 514.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 181 | 7.7%14 W · 167 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e0…44e0backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 57c | 482.82$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.55 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 9c | 429.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…1ec5backed No | 78c | 425.16$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.97 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…f50bbacked Yes | 26c | 389.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…0190backed Yes | 18c | 374.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb614…2a44backed Yes | 27c | 361.04$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 113 | 39.8%45 W · 68 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 46c | 353$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.38 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7822…46c2backed Yes | 51c | 346.69$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 14c | 342.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes | 27c | 336.57$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 51c | 320.16$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.28 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed Yes | 26c | 310.05$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…c12abacked Yes | 27c | 295.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 46c | 288$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.48 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 13c | 273.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 52c | 271.07$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.82 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 26c | 268.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 11c | 268.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked No | 71c | 237.75$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.64 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 20c | 232.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2807…ce58backed Yes | 24c | 230.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 57c | 227.12$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…b9edbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 207$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…0985backed Yes | 28c | 204$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…052abacked No | 76c | 201.7$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0c…df3cbacked No | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 280 | 34.3%96 W · 184 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 25c | 196.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 25c | 184.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 178.33$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.93 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…66c7backed No | 76c | 178.32$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 96 | 28.1%27 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 63c | 175.33$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.45 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 169.47$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.71 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed No | 53c | 167.91$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.33 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 24c | 165.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 44c | 163.89$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 17c | 161.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 152 | 21.1%32 W · 120 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 47c | 149.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…f859backed Yes | 32c | 149.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 153 | 12.4%19 W · 134 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd527…cb8abacked Yes | 45c | 148.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9a02backed Yes | 36c | 146.52$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 25c | 138.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 130.54$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 52c | 128$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf829…0688backed Yes | 26c | 125.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 52c | 124$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 177 | 20.9%37 W · 140 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 122.05$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…23e6backed Yes | 26c | 116.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes | 16c | 106.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed No | 75c | 106.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 52c | 106$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38d…83d6backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 43c | 99.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 17c | 94.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 93.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 20c | 85.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf35…3574backed Yes | 46c | 81.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 55c | 81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked No | 75c | 72.19$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.