TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$375,813,105
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$268,941,597

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $375,813,105 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 7,222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x59ae…22d5backed Yes0c20,278,770$96,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,067.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes0c14,191,092$48,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,302.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes1c11,500,776$76,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76,414.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9097…0ef0backed Yes0c9,961,829$34,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,285.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ff…ba79backed Yes0c7,972,569$8,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,115.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1b2…40cabacked Yes0c5,112,480$10,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,224.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc408…c1efbacked Yes0c4,989,584$22,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,023.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1521…f23ebacked Yes0c4,903,915$24,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,231.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45bc…978bbacked Yes0c4,346,881$12,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,508.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73df…0c9abacked Yes0c4,292,981$16,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,686.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x482b…3266backed Yes0c4,080,565$20,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,174.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb00a…77f1backed Yes0c4,043,896$19,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,205.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf414…2cd9backed Yes1c4,000,000$32,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,084.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5676…6f1dbacked Yes1c3,818,141$28,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,056.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes1c3,606,287$24,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,604.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked Yes0c3,200,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,60010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes1c3,061,623$17,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,520.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9151…0a4cbacked Yes1c2,847,051$20,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,377.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf79…6952backed Yes1c2,644,756$26,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,883.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes1c2,450,404$16,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,412.5540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74f7…da63backed Yes0c2,380,480$9,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,521.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed No78c2,360,885$1,836,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524,334.72250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafb3…2952backed Yes0c2,247,829$8,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,449.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9adc…9e4ebacked Yes1c2,131,790$14,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,457.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0ee…b834backed Yes1c1,921,406$9,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,657.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e92…1f13backed Yes0c1,756,163$7,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,079.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10e1…aa05backed Yes2c1,716,230$39,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,638.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x950e…f8e5backed Yes1c1,686,667$20,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,760.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b3…87b7backed Yes1c1,557,421$8,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,803.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc54…d4dcbacked Yes1c1,523,825$20,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,411.320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa008…f4acbacked Yes0c1,508,161$4,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,793.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4f…4652backed Yes0c1,505,000$7,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,315.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce0d…ca2cbacked Yes0c1,500,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cf8…fb93backed Yes5c1,473,681$70,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,684.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4f2…f2c5backed Yes1c1,435,672$14,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,286.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0159…db47backed Yes0c1,400,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa12e…315fbacked Yes1c1,182,059$6,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,376.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b1c…025ebacked Yes0c1,173,787$3,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,332.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39ec…6504backed Yes0c1,171,779$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,240.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes5c1,170,297$56,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,536.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf43…d9bbbacked Yes0c1,165,176$3,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,495.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x379f…50dfbacked Yes0c1,163,037$3,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,489.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc001…59a3backed Yes0c1,152,900$4,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,219.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa53c…67a5backed Yes2c1,127,863$19,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,949.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb851…0dfebacked Yes1c1,123,331$5,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,837.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3de…d680backed Yes0c1,103,634$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18f0…3d5ebacked Yes2c1,089,264$24,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,896.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc13c…a202backed Yes1c1,086,459$8,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,972.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbc8…d424backed Yes1c1,025,529$6,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,729.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Yes1c1,010,973$8,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,087.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3c1…1ef7backed Yes0c1,009,209$2,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,909.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9cb…0dd3backed Yes1c1,003,083$8,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,370.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5fa…ea67backed Yes0c1,002,812$3,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,008.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa488…7a0ebacked Yes0c986,699$1,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,428.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes1c985,629$5,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,586.26520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-73.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1675…44f2backed Yes1c981,523$7,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,852.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes1c916,603$9,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,522.192030%6 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…0856backed Yes0c897,790$2,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,693.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a2c…f15ebacked Yes0c842,595$3,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,370.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca7…4202backed Yes0c832,981$3,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,102.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes5c832,603$42,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,461.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x495e…9a96backed Yes1c807,388$5,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,234.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f6…237cbacked Yes0c784,133$3,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,003.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e6b…d7eebacked Yes1c778,253$7,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,194.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3a8…a539backed Yes1c730,115$3,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,683.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4457…b5b6backed Yes74c725,959$534,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534,202.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d74…a70abacked Yes0c721,173$2,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,884.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bb2…1aa9backed Yes0c717,845$2,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,871.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c0c…d2fdbacked Yes1c700,000$6,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,98010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1af0…3707backed Yes1c698,740$3,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,493.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd1…2812backed Yes1c671,267$5,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,013.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x910e…8fc3backed Yes1c640,207$5,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,992.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a2…83aabacked Yes0c635,101$2,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,660.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c14…f82bbacked Yes0c618,599$2,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,969.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa43a…94b2backed Yes0c618,180$2,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,472.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecb9…43eebacked Yes1c617,158$4,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,770.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2240…ca7bbacked Yes0c607,210$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x218f…7ef2backed Yes1c605,774$7,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,873.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bfb…8487backed Yes0c604,752$1,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,977.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf595…bfb5backed Yes1c600,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd53…25e7backed Yes0c579,919$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5972…92e3backed Yes0c575,974$1,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,632.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Yes44c561,289$249,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249,559.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee37…89febacked Yes1c553,740$5,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,985.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4558…3f47backed Yes1c549,355$4,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,973.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb44…d3d2backed Yes6c534,966$34,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,549.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53f2…5343backed Yes0c533,333$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13b6…2fd7backed Yes0c526,117$2,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,104.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb940…d1febacked Yes0c524,455$1,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,710.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a89…a3b6backed Yes0c517,583$1,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,552.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0e5…6208backed Yes2c517,544$12,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,787.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x397b…a667backed Yes1c503,516$2,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,61310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6418…730cbacked Yes1c501,550$2,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,978.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2454…53bebacked Yes1c500,000$3,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,002.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5ea…5201backed Yes0c500,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa02a…41d1backed Yes0c493,803$1,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,481.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5961…e013backed Yes0c491,453$1,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,965.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90fb…e8b8backed Yes0c480,777$1,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe52a…68fdbacked Yes1c480,175$2,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,88510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8631…bf7dbacked Yes0c479,500$1,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,91610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.