Stocks · resolved market
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e7a03cb1970e2ad6533b01892403516b6b3f5b5fa90ed7d104c28b27e40ba00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,418,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,569,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,418,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,682 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd18e…f090backed No | 0c | 327,401$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b0…4857backed No | 28c | 325,562$91,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91,483.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…d4dcbacked No | 0c | 300,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 61c | 198,031$121,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76,873.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…27dfbacked Yes | 63c | 196,682$123,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73,022.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…fac1backed Yes | 10c | 154,531$14,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139,718.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 10cpaid | +445.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe32f…ce26backed Yes | 62c | 151,450$94,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57,160.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 60c | 148,319$89,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89,241.11 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…a6fcbacked Yes | 53c | 145,548$76,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68,831.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d9…fd2fbacked Yes | 66c | 133,969$88,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,738.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…12d7backed Yes | 2c | 123,555$2,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120,661.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +4,170.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…00c9backed Yes | 72c | 121,190$86,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,526.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…e69bbacked No | 1c | 119,112$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 5c | 116,830$5,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,336.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb23…173ebacked No | 26c | 115,981$30,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,301.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc26…7e7dbacked Yes | 34c | 102,030$34,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67,185.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 0c | 80,010$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8e…3b91backed No | 1c | 77,244$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…b9f9backed No | 26c | 75,824$19,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,538.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c3…5b9abacked Yes | 66c | 74,427$49,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,399.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0073…e0e0backed No | 0c | 74,150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed No | 33c | 70,385$23,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,511.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 35c | 68,093$23,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,845.85 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78b…66abbacked Yes | 26c | 62,917$16,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,381.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +115%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…91e7backed Yes | 7c | 60,389$4,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,204.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +621.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed No | 49c | 58,516$28,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,781.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…f5ddbacked Yes | 72c | 56,796$40,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,117.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bd…ebcebacked Yes | 71c | 56,327$39,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,560.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aec…b487backed Yes | 72c | 55,451$39,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,579.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…846fbacked Yes | 71c | 53,081$37,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,178.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +163.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed No | 48c | 50,342$24,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,121.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed No | 0c | 48,066$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5f…c63dbacked No | 75c | 46,289$34,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,889.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…a86fbacked Yes | 76c | 44,824$34,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,713.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes | 43c | 41,471$17,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,508.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4799…f273backed Yes | 72c | 41,319$29,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,750.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 28c | 40,826$11,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,508.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…f2d4backed No | 8c | 40,769$3,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,291.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x830e…7099backed No | 71c | 40,743$29,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,037.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…c32dbacked No | 36c | 40,426$14,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,466.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 70c | 36,437$25,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,866.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab4…716bbacked Yes | 42c | 35,603$15,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,588.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…7774backed No | 31c | 35,227$10,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,990.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9683…108bbacked No | 1c | 34,693$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x469c…309bbacked Yes | 16c | 34,626$5,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,109.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +291.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d6…af94backed No | 53c | 34,397$18,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,372.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 65c | 34,268$22,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,901.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab1c…aaddbacked No | 27c | 33,657$9,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,188.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…06f7backed Yes | 60c | 32,762$19,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,066.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7637…ffcdbacked Yes | 58c | 32,184$18,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,580.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…6cd3backed No | 34c | 31,802$10,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,878.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 70c | 31,287$21,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,370.16 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…49d8backed No | 47c | 31,063$14,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,454.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…d510backed No | 32c | 30,358$9,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,735.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed No | 0c | 30,200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9680…0263backed No | 34c | 30,118$10,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,111.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42d5…00f0backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 64c | 29,117$18,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,521.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…85aabacked Yes | 50c | 28,094$13,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,136.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…5eeabacked No | 27c | 27,495$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,499.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…6eedbacked Yes | 74c | 26,675$19,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,832.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…7babbacked No | 31c | 25,746$8,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,019.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 46c | 25,021$11,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,541.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c2…4708backed Yes | 68c | 25,000$16,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,053.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…2d19backed Yes | 4c | 24,761$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,760.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,376.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7d…3db0backed Yes | 38c | 24,652$9,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,397.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a280backed No | 27c | 24,500$6,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,681.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…8ce2backed Yes | 60c | 24,158$14,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,611.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…6bc1backed No | 74c | 24,100$17,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,881.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4d…f703backed No | 50c | 23,844$11,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,904.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16eb…d2bfbacked Yes | 65c | 22,673$14,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,935.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 59c | 22,139$13,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,974.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef9…4ebebacked No | 0c | 22,017$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b97…8014backed No | 0c | 21,910$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed Yes | 50c | 21,773$10,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,862.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31c…c183backed No | 0c | 21,640$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87dd…003bbacked Yes | 74c | 21,253$15,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,429.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8894…5019backed No | 43c | 20,986$9,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,017.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…571dbacked No | 50c | 20,502$10,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,242 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed No | 21c | 20,085$4,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,126.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682e…70bdbacked Yes | 73c | 19,750$14,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,414.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…a66fbacked No | 0c | 19,570$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fb…89cebacked Yes | 15c | 19,551$3,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,539.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +549.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2e…6276backed No | 51c | 19,321$9,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,833.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed Yes | 72c | 18,827$13,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,272.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4b…b8e6backed Yes | 74c | 18,311$13,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,751.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 11c | 18,087$1,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,970 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5920…b508backed No | 23c | 17,912$4,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,090.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked No | 36c | 17,301$6,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,233.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad8…41b6backed Yes | 68c | 17,102$11,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,433.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c08…1ff6backed Yes | 5c | 16,812$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,903.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +534.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1403…3715backed No | 24c | 16,537$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b69…398cbacked Yes | 75c | 16,489$12,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,155.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed No | 42c | 16,368$6,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,864.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 27c | 16,329$4,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,414.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c10…7a35backed Yes | 73c | 16,282$11,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,338.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +186.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…96f7backed No | 25c | 16,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked No | 2c | 15,644$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6d…21c9backed No | 34c | 15,623$5,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,294.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?this page
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?No won
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?No won
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.