TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,976,158
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,902,321

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,976,158 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 665 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d14…c06dbacked Yes1c1,850,377$11,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,506.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd44c…1223backed Yes0c1,033,410$4,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,556.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03c8…0b7ebacked Yes0c915,467$4,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,149.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7396…d207backed Yes5c599,895$29,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,394.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e77…482ebacked Yes2c502,409$7,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,767.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe8c…9e9ebacked Yes0c404,268$1,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,702.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x722d…993ebacked Yes1c184,001$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,997.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f3…108bbacked Yes0c154,999$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fff…4a51backed Yes1c145,381$1,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,830.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes1c141,661$1,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,806.892119%4 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-39.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf05e…95b0backed Yes1c125,955$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,27610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x729d…d7bcbacked Yes1c123,229$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce1b…46bdbacked Yes1c111,126$1,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,494.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2858…1a75backed Yes1c106,847$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03d9…70e9backed Yes0c100,247$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+75.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f58…238bbacked Yes2c100,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f1…6a5ebacked Yes1c88,878$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1584…2bf3backed Yes0c84,367$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4963…45ebbacked Yes1c82,119$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x053c…cdc0backed Yes1c78,365$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf29f…5ccabacked Yes1c78,000$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b2e…09c8backed Yes16c71,689$11,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,470.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc9…7552backed Yes7c66,862$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f1…bdc6backed Yes0c64,940$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…8784backed Yes2c61,145$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cb5…4b22backed Yes2c60,635$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf661…2dccbacked Yes2c56,856$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc35d…2e3dbacked Yes0c52,966$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a28…b847backed Yes1c50,122$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x733b…02c8backed Yes2c50,075$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec5c…4526backed Yes2c47,803$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec75…8786backed Yes1c45,213$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes4c38,832$1,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,687.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e04…7127backed Yes5c37,353$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c37,197$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.77616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick2cpaid+693.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f44…bc79backed Yes4c33,767$1,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,281.57425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa327…01e9backed Yes2c32,470$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7048…3d52backed Yes1c30,666$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47e8…faeabacked Yes1c30,052$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-64.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8045…5b8fbacked Yes1c28,637$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.89520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Yes2c27,192$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.79812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-81.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b7…89ddbacked Yes4c26,117$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb350…ef37backed Yes2c25,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e71…5b68backed Yes2c24,959$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2974…c2fcbacked Yes4c22,901$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d82…672dbacked Yes5c22,769$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ea4…2e1ebacked Yes1c22,210$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09c1…c6d5backed Yes1c22,066$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb1f…c395backed Yes4c21,838$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8763…4c54backed Yes0c21,700$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Yes2c21,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1195…fba2backed Yes1c20,096$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes0c20,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a45…81fdbacked Yes6c20,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Yes28c19,467$5,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,505.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57e7…b491backed Yes18c19,359$3,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes2c18,755$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.15825%2 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+102.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb0f…57b9backed Yes3c17,678$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a74…ca4bbacked Yes0c16,667$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8112…26acbacked Yes2c15,293$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes2c15,146$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.541822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed Yes1c15,074$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.77540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-28.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes5c15,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6401…198fbacked Yes5c15,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes9c14,911$1,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,370.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6f2…139cbacked Yes1c14,651$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Yes11c14,423$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,568.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a5…3415backed Yes1c14,214$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes6c13,909$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.68425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-68%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e8…dda3backed Yes3c13,826$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb684…610cbacked Yes1c13,608$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b8d…5820backed Yes0c13,147$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffde…7e18backed Yes8c13,100$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a2…ce8fbacked Yes3c12,951$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ec8…ec28backed Yes2c12,857$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5885…8326backed Yes1c12,600$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c44…28e9backed Yes5c12,463$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.04520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-53.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ec…ccffbacked Yes1c12,233$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+213.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c12,226$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.35924.3%4 W · 88 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfeb4…7309backed Yes1c12,157$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c08…d3f0backed Yes2c12,154$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x501f…7f1fbacked Yes3c12,047$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes11c11,853$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,310.43757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.38per pick19cpaid+191.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4574…0b7abacked Yes2c11,495$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac9…6163backed Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x346b…d70fbacked Yes1c10,664$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+163.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3921…8491backed Yes2c10,527$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8776…3589backed Yes19c10,381$1,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,981.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed No73c10,314$7,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,825.97742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Yes2c10,300$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e04…a8e7backed Yes1c10,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e4…9e2abacked Yes1c9,885$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b75…491fbacked Yes1c9,797$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c1c…4af8backed Yes0c9,580$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes2c9,430$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21650%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd38a…52c0backed Yes5c9,291$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.37130%0 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27b2…865ebacked Yes5c9,263$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x115d…2aa7backed Yes17c9,136$1,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,533.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed No70c9,000$6,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,668.492100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.