Stocks · resolved market
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a4db724246b51cbfbc8000dbbd6b54d72b057767c3690e63d940b26d78c6cb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,710,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,484,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,710,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 383 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcec1…9dffbacked Yes | 4c | 177,183$7,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,496.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…fac1backed Yes | 4c | 96,845$3,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,940.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 10cpaid | +445.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 62,441$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +991.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc9…7552backed Yes | 10c | 60,000$5,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,898.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 57,579$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.1 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 2c | 51,133$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ab…909ebacked Yes | 1c | 44,737$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 5c | 35,917$1,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,821.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…cbbcbacked Yes | 2c | 33,189$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…5366backed Yes | 4c | 30,880$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 30,004$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.63 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 4c | 28,618$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c08…1ff6backed Yes | 1c | 23,554$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +534.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 20,333$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 1c | 18,858$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.48 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…1223backed Yes | 6c | 18,279$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 5c | 17,669$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +284.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 17,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x929b…7834backed Yes | 9c | 16,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes | 9c | 15,034$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…8de5backed Yes | 1c | 13,970$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 1c | 13,780$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 2cpaid | +1,439.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf622…162ebacked Yes | 4c | 13,133$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +257.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…ec29backed Yes | 0c | 12,157$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb659…48e5backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6edd…6569backed Yes | 2c | 11,739$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Yes | 11c | 11,255$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 10,665$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 0c | 10,499$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 0c | 10,034$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8045…5b8fbacked Yes | 8c | 9,339$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86f5…428ebacked Yes | 1c | 9,167$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +288.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa4…3cd7backed Yes | 1c | 8,802$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 5c | 8,000$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…bc2dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,641$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212f…7827backed Yes | 1c | 7,020$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c2…2926backed Yes | 1c | 6,641$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked Yes | 2c | 6,481$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 6cpaid | +706.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 5c | 6,467$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 6,460$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.3 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e3…4bb2backed Yes | 2c | 5,954$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 12c | 5,876$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…e266backed Yes | 5c | 5,851$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,800$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.21 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a99…a499backed Yes | 2c | 5,320$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +418.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0926…4624backed Yes | 2c | 5,263$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…e36ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,210$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 5,194$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 4c | 5,030$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 2cpaid | +693.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb5…8bd4backed Yes | 8c | 4,970$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aad…4e00backed Yes | 5c | 4,934$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 4,903$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.83 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…6658backed Yes | 5c | 4,881$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 7c | 4,666$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.38 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…bbabbacked Yes | 2c | 4,556$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +231.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 3c | 4,307$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.56 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…faeabacked Yes | 12c | 4,168$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cff…3abdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,155$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 8cpaid | +660.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed Yes | 6c | 4,143$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 11cpaid | +508.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6e…5272backed Yes | 10c | 4,089$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 5c | 4,000$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902c…db6cbacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Yes | 3c | 4,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1caa…5800backed Yes | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7d…088abacked Yes | 1c | 3,976$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…1f74backed Yes | 4c | 3,782$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…8b05backed Yes | 1c | 3,734$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7b…d81fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,680$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes | 0c | 3,667$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 2cpaid | +941.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Yes | 7c | 3,570$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25fd…bc34backed Yes | 4c | 3,552$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe46…cb39backed Yes | 1c | 3,494$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 8cpaid | +664.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f44…bc79backed Yes | 11c | 3,464$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 2c | 3,398$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.36per pick | 27cpaid | +259.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…a5a7backed Yes | 5c | 3,358$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x899a…63ffbacked Yes | 3c | 3,302$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…f5d9backed Yes | 8c | 3,287$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 17cpaid | +237.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03d9…70e9backed Yes | 6c | 3,250$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…7547backed Yes | 1c | 3,250$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1e…ccc9backed Yes | 1c | 3,200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc574…3a59backed Yes | 0c | 3,135$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,131$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…39adbacked Yes | 11c | 3,094$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdd…1aebbacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…6939backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 1c | 2,997$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc1…84edbacked Yes | 1c | 2,975$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…6824backed Yes | 10c | 2,900$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,889$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…bfb3backed Yes | 1c | 2,884$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3496…3513backed Yes | 5c | 2,860$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3674…2fc6backed Yes | 1c | 2,810$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,806$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +216.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2931…edc0backed Yes | 1c | 2,791$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc0…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 2,591$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…c058backed Yes | 4c | 2,424$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…f147backed Yes | 2c | 2,368$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 6cpaid | +834.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f49…231dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,363$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa881…cd20backed Yes | 1c | 2,346$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?this page
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?No won
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.