TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9cff…3abd

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
47
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Stocks, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Stocks at 57 out of 100; worst NFL at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT1361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+29.2%+$10.95
Will the Golden State Warriors make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+30.3%+$12.1
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.91
Will the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+83.8%+$65.69
Will the Charlotte Hornets make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.33
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+77.1%+$24.78
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+41.1%+$68.66
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.27
Will Ausar Thompson lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+105.4%+$56.1
Will Tyrese Maxey lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.89
Will the Washington Wizards have the worst record in the NBA?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+101%+$39
Will the Brooklyn Nets have the worst record in the NBA?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.59
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+39.7%+$24.25
All 13 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-17.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+23%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.59per pick8cpaid+660.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Stocks — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$4.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arvell Reese be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.47
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.