TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$119,217
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$124,024

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,217 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 230 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2b5a…33eebacked Yes64c2,791$1,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,781.01977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+38.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4f8…3bb4backed Yes63c2,720$1,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,722.93475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3126…4ff7backed Yes63c2,446$1,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,552.11475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1bf…a751backed No51c1,335$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.062157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d58…34e0backed No46c1,265$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.1728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-38.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c07…956bbacked Yes53c1,226$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.231338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a79…1ccbbacked Yes53c1,223$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.641540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6034…b5fdbacked No50c1,197$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.851266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+133.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe2a8…9b29backed No51c1,118$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.11833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-45.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3d86…d0a2backed Yes53c1,050$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.55650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+37.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5784…4018backed No50c1,037$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.572050%10 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f66…ad61backed No56c1,036$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.881127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb88…6b99backed Yes52c990$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.22931%9 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-39.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed Yes54c967$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.181931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7f0…669dbacked No47c911$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.652744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc40a…1f50backed Yes44c857$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.941650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x293b…c83bbacked Yes53c851$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.881442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7321…1812backed Yes43c827$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.592035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd8…757abacked Yes50c822$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.641136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5884…3191backed No54c812$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.522744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfec…09a7backed Yes35c803$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.663240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid+12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b72…cd8ebacked No47c803$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.391030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f51…09adbacked No47c802$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.661747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+22.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71d2…e109backed Yes53c794$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.413435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-2.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52e9…a961backed Yes62c780.02$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.47475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b9…5f57backed No54c761$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.062050%10 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7176…6f9fbacked No46c727$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.582250%11 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked Yes53c726$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.232937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf51b…bf74backed Yes54c725$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.52441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff74…24f0backed No47c718$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.982060%12 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+56.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3a2…811fbacked Yes65c710.03$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.35475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3a0…b7bdbacked Yes54c689$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.06933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4559…f02bbacked No47c684$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.892733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e7c…07cebacked Yes57c678.93$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.361844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x282e…3eaabacked No44c671$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.11163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+47%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x647e…88c8backed Yes44c652$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.531947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes51c651.35$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.9922041.4%91 W · 129 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbec…8dccbacked No46c645$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.31850%9 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+66.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x253f…e642backed No47c643$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.081758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+40.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x605c…83dcbacked Yes53c641$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.011844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39dd…1bb5backed Yes54c636$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.442020%4 W · 16 L-4.9wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-58.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xde2b…73a0backed Yes50c635$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.141942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f5…b461backed No50c632$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.633135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-33.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x298c…67fbbacked Yes53c589$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.761070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+54.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3f0…f05fbacked Yes54c588$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.52540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-45.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02ee…5adebacked Yes44c576$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.022050%10 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66a7…6569backed No47c574$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.791241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f0f…98e8backed Yes53c568$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.611533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes54c551$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.542161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+33.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1633…8bf6backed No47c535$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.091060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x90ec…62aabacked No56c531$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.173256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3d0f…af26backed No47c522$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.72060%12 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+27.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2247…96e8backed No50c502$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2521526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.19per pick45cpaid-27.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x246f…0ab2backed Yes50c483$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.981442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd1…2bb3backed No47c481$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.41633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeee4…9964backed No46c479$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.481650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb25c…6d89backed Yes39c466$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.783450%17 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ea…ae12backed No65c456.69$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.551040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4c5…dcb1backed Yes46c456$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.761346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+51.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bef…1e38backed No50c454$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.452744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x322a…3274backed Yes46c446$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.162951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…cd55backed No47c443$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.682339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45ff…bab6backed No54c430$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.82259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c57…c2e0backed No46c423$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.422254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd2b…ebedbacked Yes50c418$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.421464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+56.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes51c400.58$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.7622750.2%114 W · 113 L+24.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6587…4f63backed Yes54c390$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.61838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No50c388$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.391770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+45.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x31a8…1f07backed No47c386$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.353240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes6c377$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.621250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x451a…a0c9backed No47c373$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.442657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd502…4974backed Yes50c371$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.871553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb023…6d90backed No50c371$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.871758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+60.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc94a…ac22backed Yes44c365$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.971241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8bb…e885backed No48c363$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.972955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+47.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x58e1…a5cdbacked Yes46c361$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.062142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf49…6cfebacked No47c351$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.732544%11 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa18…7693backed Yes53c350$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.22941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5518…1211backed Yes50c349$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.852347.8%11 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d38…e898backed No47c346$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.072245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes54c346$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.842152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59d7…0217backed Yes44c337$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.621560%9 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+24.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e36…2479backed No47c328$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.842441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06d8…4c30backed No46c322$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.881546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f3…2568backed Yes68c321.49$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2202347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x342d…f660backed Yes62c320.05$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.57475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes50c318$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.373339.4%13 W · 20 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae18…1132backed Yes47c309$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.52842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7fd…a3e1backed No47c309$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.081266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+72.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x19cd…f7ffbacked No56c302$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.183050%15 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes53c293$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.883246.9%15 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No39c284.8$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.3820838%79 W · 129 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9720…f4d1backed No56c271$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.782454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+50.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed No42c269.84$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.9238239.5%151 W · 231 L+35.9wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+15.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8737…2bffbacked No47c264$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.452955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed No49c261.91$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.8818246.7%85 W · 97 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bbb…5c80backed Yes4c260$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.42429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-54%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x636a…09aabacked No51c259$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.362045%9 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe539…5345backed Yes6c250$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.272250%11 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+26.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed Yes53c245$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.342339.1%9 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.