NBA · resolved market
Will the Utah Jazz win more than 18.5 regular season games in 2025–26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d7df3b86a30d9333c5b7c69b70441c7a46e94e10aeb6a1a853bf09e8a64be5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,952 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x253f…e642backed No | 9c | 2,171$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.39 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…b842backed No | 9c | 1,032$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 6c | 654.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…1ff0backed No | 9c | 612$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked No | 9c | 609$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 56c | 476.31$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.38 | 227 | 50.2%114 W · 113 L | +24.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed No | 20c | 473$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.61 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 15c | 429$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 75c | 416.45$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed No | 9c | 390$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Yes | 77c | 387$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked No | 9c | 361$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed No | 19c | 338$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…2cdbbacked No | 9c | 310$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 5c | 284.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed No | 19c | 270$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed No | 19c | 266$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked Yes | 78c | 244$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked No | 45c | 236$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…24f0backed Yes | 55c | 231$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.95 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 44c | 228$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 21c | 220$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 33c | 209$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6951…cb02backed No | 9c | 209$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…88c8backed No | 45c | 209$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c0…b919backed Yes | 79c | 182$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a7a9backed No | 15c | 175$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…b2fabacked No | 21c | 172$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked No | 7c | 167.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2f…a8aabacked No | 21c | 165$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed No | 9c | 155$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 13c | 153.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed No | 48c | 152$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 13c | 151$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked No | 18c | 145$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked Yes | 79c | 143$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be1…cb56backed Yes | 79c | 138$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked No | 45c | 132$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed No | 47c | 131$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed Yes | 55c | 126$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed No | 19c | 119$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed20…84f1backed No | 11c | 116.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 19c | 115.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…85b7backed No | 46c | 111$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes | 52c | 101$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 93.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +24.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 19c | 92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…3497backed Yes | 52c | 92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed No | 44c | 88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed No | 19c | 87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed No | 48c | 78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 35c | 73.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked No | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No | 19c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…3888backed Yes | 79c | 64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed No | 21c | 62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed Yes | 79c | 62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed No | 21c | 59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…5eafbacked Yes | 79c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06cd…e124backed No | 21c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed No | 21c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 44c | 45.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 44c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8191backed Yes | 79c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c2e0backed Yes | 79c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…b461backed No | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 60c | 30.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…a23bbacked Yes | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9b…b6aabacked No | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…3274backed Yes | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ee…421bbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.34per pick | 49cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7578…e5dabacked Yes | 70c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Utah Jazz win more than 18.5 regular season games in 2025–26?this page
- Will the Atlanta Hawks win more than 47.5 regular season games in 2025–26?No won
- Will the Boston Celtics win more than 41.5 regular season games in 2025–26?Yes won
- Will the Brooklyn Nets win more than 19.5 regular season games in 2025–26?Yes won
- Will the Chicago Bulls win more than 33.5 regular season games in 2025–26?No won
- Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win more than 56.5 regular season games in 2025–26?No won
- Will the Dallas Mavericks win more than 41.5 regular season games in 2025–26?No won
- Will the Detroit Pistons win more than 46.5 regular season games in 2025–26?Yes won
- Will the Golden State Warriors win more than 47.5 regular season games in 2025–26?No won
- Will the Houston Rockets win more than 52.5 regular season games in 2025–26?No won
- Will the Indiana Pacers win more than 37.5 regular season games in 2025–26?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Clippers win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Lakers win more than 46.5 regular season games in 2025–26?Yes won
- Will the Memphis Grizzlies win more than 39.5 regular season games in 2025–26?No won
- Will the Miami Heat win more than 37.5 regular season games in 2025–26?Yes won
- Will the Milwaukee Bucks win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?No won
- Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26?No won
- Will the New Orleans Pelicans win more than 30.5 regular season games in 2025–26?No won
- Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?No won
- Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win more than 62.5 regular season games in 2025–26?Yes won
- Will the Orlando Magic win more than 51.5 regular season games in 2025–26?No won
- Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?Yes won
- Will the Phoenix Suns win more than 30.5 regular season games in 2025–26?Yes won
- Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?Yes won
- Will the Sacramento Kings win more than 32.5 regular season games in 2025–26?No won
- Will the San Antonio Spurs win more than 44.5 regular season games in 2025–26?Yes won
- Will the Toronto Raptors win more than 39.5 regular season games in 2025–26?Yes won
- Will the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in 2025–26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.