NBA · resolved market

Will the Milwaukee Bucks win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9d5cca4322d48749ece2a72bb39b854f932b6b236e0b2f34a31bc8e8975185b

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 15, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $30,514
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $28,184

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,514 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	7,409$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.31	1,132	17%192 W · 940 L	+2.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes	44c	891.24$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.77	199	51.8%103 W · 96 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed No	58c	880$506 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$373.91	182	46.7%85 W · 97 L	+7.6wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c55…8adebacked Yes	17c	718$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.52	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed Yes	6c	560$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-2.1wins	-0.11per pick	42cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	8c	544.71$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	89	4.5%4 W · 85 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed Yes	20c	483$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.92	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+55.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f51…09adbacked Yes	5c	313$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.65	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2255…65d8backed Yes	53c	300$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a88…b859backed Yes	8c	280$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.4	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.8wins	+0.20per pick	36cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda34…91dabacked Yes	9c	277.1$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.07	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb132…6943backed Yes	7c	250$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No	47c	219.44$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.3	350	49.4%173 W · 177 L	+17.0wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed Yes	12c	215$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.8	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed Yes	11c	214$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.54	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes	14c	200$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4346…2241backed Yes	12c	197$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.64	28	50%14 W · 14 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60b3…55cfbacked No	56c	179$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.76	11	81.8%9 W · 2 L	+3.6wins	+0.33per pick	49cpaid	+113.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcb88…6b99backed Yes	61c	145$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.45	29	31%9 W · 20 L	-3.7wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x460d…6232backed No	56c	140$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.6	17	70.6%12 W · 5 L	+2.3wins	+0.13per pick	57cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf51b…bf74backed Yes	13c	139$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.07	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe539…5345backed No	56c	138$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.72	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes	8c	134.67$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.89	28	50%14 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04da…dc10backed Yes	44c	130$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.2	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b0e…282abacked No	56c	125$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.10per pick	32cpaid	+103.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f01…cc23backed Yes	12c	117$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.83	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xde23…62e9backed Yes	44c	94$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.36	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No	47c	89.99$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.7	165	37%61 W · 104 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda7f…c93dbacked Yes	44c	68$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.92	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed Yes	44c	67$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.48	30	50%15 W · 15 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee4e…aa5abacked No	56c	58$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.52	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-16%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf666…8842backed No	56c	51$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.44	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes	44c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+2.4wins	+0.12per pick	45cpaid	+42.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the Milwaukee Bucks win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event