TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2255…65d8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
46
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: World Politics, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 51 out of 100; worst CS2 at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$54
Will Josh Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$84
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$16
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$85.5
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will Jesse Plemons win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$13.49
Will Dwayne Johnson win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$19.98
Will Emily Blunt win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+75.4%+$21.5
Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$31
Will Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+28.2%+$11
Will The Smashing Machine be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$54
"Tron: Ares" Rotten Tomatoes score is less than 50?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.99
All 15 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT1442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.5
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200.25
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$100
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+65.5%+$196.68
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.85
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$42.37
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.91
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.79
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$159
Thunder vs. Trail Blazersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$74.75
Pistons vs. Grizzliesbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+56.3%+$42.19
Spread: Magic (-6.5)backed Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$44.65
Warriors vs. Trail Blazersbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$74.25
Spurs vs. Pelicansbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$45.6
All 14 picks, newest first.
CS2last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FURIA make CS2 EWC Grand finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will Team Vitality make CS2 EWC Grand finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$175.2
Will Team Falcons make CS2 EWC Grand finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.28
Will MOUZ make CS2 EWC Grand finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$178.6
Counter-Strike: BIG vs G2 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group Abacked BIG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.2
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Luminosity (+1.5)backed Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$70.05
Will Team Falcons win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs paiN (BO3)backed Passion UA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$56.25
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3)backed Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+66.7%+$60
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX (BO3)backed G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+47.1%+$23.53
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Sep 15, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennislast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Monterrey Open: Clara Tauson vs Renata Zarazuabacked Renata Zarazua · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$81
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$123
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$197.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.