Movies · resolved market
Will Josh Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32a36548c4e7ff4eb2b158f8e6b9327c3cf54efb834551de4423afda8bcba48f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $299,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $299,073 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 35,796$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ae…bd84backed Yes | 0c | 16,225$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314c…6cbebacked Yes | 0c | 13,701$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes | 0c | 11,702$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 10,778$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…39b0backed Yes | 0c | 10,083$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ca…535bbacked Yes | 1c | 9,146$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd19…d20dbacked Yes | 1c | 9,146$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 1c | 8,164$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad47…1d5abacked Yes | 0c | 7,285$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 0c | 5,888$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…17c5backed Yes | 0c | 5,844$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752f…cfd5backed Yes | 1c | 5,788$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa6…2c95backed Yes | 6c | 5,353$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,312$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a7…ed55backed Yes | 1c | 5,099$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d92…9563backed Yes | 1c | 5,099$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…f484backed Yes | 6c | 5,096$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac41…6f13backed Yes | 1c | 5,083$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd16a…6b41backed Yes | 1c | 5,083$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35c…b0cabacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe635…4351backed Yes | 1c | 4,625$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…8444backed Yes | 1c | 4,625$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 0c | 4,520$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa969…8076backed Yes | 1c | 3,787$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d2…bbe7backed Yes | 1c | 3,723$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,542$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 41 | 0%0 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,571$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0e…57bebacked Yes | 0c | 2,520$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc929…1377backed Yes | 2c | 2,481$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 2,162$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,143$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…de56backed Yes | 1c | 2,132$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…82e8backed Yes | 1c | 2,018$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,011$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e85…1f81backed Yes | 4c | 1,999$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.98 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba70…bb13backed Yes | 1c | 1,846$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…fbbabacked Yes | 1c | 1,796$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,607$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 1c | 1,543$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 6c | 1,533$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1710…3344backed Yes | 4c | 1,071$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 4c | 999.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2255…65d8backed Yes | 1c | 800$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 681.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8661…0e14backed Yes | 4c | 633.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc802…3570backed Yes | 3c | 592.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f2…94b7backed Yes | 3c | 573.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 560.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 534.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fc…3256backed Yes | 4c | 513.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac5…568bbacked Yes | 4c | 485.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…a0b7backed Yes | 4c | 358.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 7c | 244.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Josh Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Benny Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Guillermo del Toro win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Hikari win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jafar Panahi win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Joachim Trier win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jon M. Chu win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Kathryn Bigelow win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Kleber Mendonça Filho win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Park Chan-wook win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Yorgos Lanthimos win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.