TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Jafar Panahi win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$395,438
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$243,497

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $395,438 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x683f…6b89backed Yes1c10,560$95 inLost-$95.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc35…401abacked Yes2c7,680$169 inLost-$168.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5573…b7c3backed Yes2c7,670$146 inLost-$145.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d5e…e6febacked Yes2c7,670$138 inLost-$138.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe220…1b4dbacked Yes1c7,605$68 inLost-$68.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0937…57e0backed Yes1c7,605$68 inLost-$68.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd320…e99cbacked Yes2c7,165$158 inLost-$157.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7ca…ccbabacked Yes1c7,085$64 inLost-$63.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes1c4,642$54 inLost-$53.934434.1%15 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+51.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96ac…8c5dbacked Yes1c4,640$37 inLost-$37.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd10c…f456backed Yes1c4,640$37 inLost-$37.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes0c3,704$10 inLost-$10.22290%0 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c3,681$39 inLost-$39.081,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c2,912$12 inLost-$12.431114.5%5 W · 106 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8646…ed78backed Yes1c2,454$15 inLost-$14.7770%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes2c2,217$49 inLost-$49.14140%0 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fd8…b756backed Yes1c1,433$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf071…cbcbbacked Yes1c1,271$14 inLost-$14812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-71.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes1c963.01$12 inLost-$11.8548236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes1c876.01$12 inLost-$11.951711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick14cpaid+65.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8f3…80e4backed Yes2c800$15 inLost-$15.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-72.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes2c730.22$14 inLost-$13.94555.5%3 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-86.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4457…e7b9backed Yes2c675.33$14 inLost-$13.9714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes3c586.89$15 inLost-$14.671729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.