TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Hikari win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$613,789
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,033

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $613,789 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x92a0…5218backed Yes0c35,960$86 inLost-$85.9450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd8a…23debacked Yes0c28,332$74 inLost-$74.150%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa909…6badbacked Yes0c15,256$44 inLost-$43.5990%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf4e9…245dbacked Yes0c14,166$39 inLost-$39.2350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6225…5eb6backed Yes0c13,076$36 inLost-$35.9660%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes0c12,300$38 inLost-$37.6990%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes0c12,300$35 inLost-$35.2110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46b1…d9edbacked Yes0c11,987$35 inLost-$34.8730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a33…fd9cbacked Yes0c9,807$27 inLost-$27.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5db…d774backed Yes0c9,807$27 inLost-$27.2430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83fe…6b61backed Yes0c8,718$27 inLost-$27.24130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aed…b8bfbacked Yes0c8,718$25 inLost-$25.0630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes0c8,718$24 inLost-$23.9780%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae19…11aebacked Yes0c7,628$22 inLost-$21.7940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8650…b3f7backed Yes0c6,538$19 inLost-$18.5260%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdac…547abacked Yes0c6,538$15 inLost-$15.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x433c…aa4cbacked Yes0c6,538$17 inLost-$17.4420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes0c5,567$20 inLost-$19.67290%0 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bb5…bdcdbacked Yes0c5,448$16 inLost-$16.3550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3991…8deebacked Yes0c5,448$19 inLost-$18.5220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes1c4,499$31 inLost-$31.4922030.5%67 W · 153 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x81a1…d4a6backed Yes0c4,359$15 inLost-$15.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x017b…4e46backed Yes1c974.82$12 inLost-$12.241717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-58.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.