Movies · resolved market
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a2f5de6fcdacae0f56cb60cd05765e0e9998b605f6cc9c8885ee2a87ad85175
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $983,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $983,479 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 486 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed No | 9c | 33,253$3,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,113.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 8c | 28,600$2,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,245.55 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x130b…6020backed No | 22c | 23,700$5,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,214 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 9c | 14,903$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.66 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed No | 8c | 13,883$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.37 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…4582backed No | 8c | 12,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked No | 7c | 8,000$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.43 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 10c | 7,551$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.92 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf0…0a7bbacked Yes | 78c | 6,400$4,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5e…7082backed Yes | 78c | 5,900$4,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…76d3backed Yes | 78c | 5,800$4,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf7…ef5fbacked Yes | 78c | 5,600$4,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…699bbacked No | 8c | 5,305$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…1076backed No | 9c | 4,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aec…b4cebacked No | 7c | 3,571$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 13c | 3,526$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.29 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 11c | 3,302$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.65 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4928backed No | 28c | 3,228$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes | 80c | 3,141$2,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.81 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 7c | 3,139$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.64 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 6c | 2,899$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 2,855$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.06 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 2,815$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.07 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe66f…cef4backed Yes | 74c | 2,762$2,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…51b6backed No | 12c | 2,663$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.3 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 8c | 2,520$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.66 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d9…4f8abacked No | 28c | 2,515$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked No | 9c | 2,500$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…c089backed No | 8c | 2,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…63e6backed No | 25c | 2,360$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 14c | 2,339$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.99 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…73c4backed Yes | 75c | 2,312$1,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ee…7127backed Yes | 69c | 2,067$1,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b4…7493backed No | 5c | 2,021$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 12c | 1,931$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.9 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -7.5wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 1,911$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.86 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0b…15ecbacked No | 26c | 1,871$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34de…971ebacked No | 25c | 1,852$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…e8dfbacked Yes | 78c | 1,801$1,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e9…5c13backed Yes | 77c | 1,774$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x693a…5cd3backed No | 24c | 1,772$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf57…b363backed Yes | 73c | 1,761$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c3…9d95backed No | 23c | 1,723$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb528…54cbbacked Yes | 78c | 1,715$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd701…55c3backed No | 25c | 1,613$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c4…6f82backed Yes | 75c | 1,594$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cb…001bbacked No | 6c | 1,589$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc5…4f35backed Yes | 76c | 1,568$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7134…8febbacked No | 11c | 1,503$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 22c | 1,500$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.99 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 8c | 1,486$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.97 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 23c | 1,484$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.16 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe08e…9d2fbacked No | 28c | 1,454$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…d4aabacked No | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…daa3backed Yes | 76c | 1,424$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8399…49f9backed No | 26c | 1,388$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 13c | 1,337$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.85 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked No | 22c | 1,315$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba9…0516backed No | 8c | 1,268$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2802…6f1ebacked No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2879…8bbebacked Yes | 69c | 1,250$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff44…70bdbacked No | 5c | 1,222$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…2decbacked Yes | 74c | 1,216$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6073…02c4backed Yes | 73c | 1,214$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc030…79e2backed No | 22c | 1,210$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89c…398fbacked No | 17c | 1,200$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…83c0backed No | 25c | 1,190$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…74a1backed No | 23c | 1,188$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7e…a74abacked Yes | 77c | 1,184$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a4…f748backed Yes | 78c | 1,164$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3b…9902backed No | 22c | 1,153$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d1…66e4backed Yes | 80c | 1,145$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7c…69a7backed No | 21c | 1,143$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2c…8cdabacked Yes | 77c | 1,142$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e2…d3a1backed No | 21c | 1,142$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6425…5f73backed Yes | 79c | 1,140$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…8604backed No | 22c | 1,136$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c7…b6b3backed Yes | 74c | 1,127$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e9…f3cdbacked No | 22c | 1,119$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…ca83backed No | 30c | 1,116$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…f3c8backed Yes | 79c | 1,116$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9569…5633backed Yes | 79c | 1,115$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399b…e771backed No | 25c | 1,108$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…cfccbacked Yes | 75c | 1,093$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c1…1bccbacked Yes | 75c | 1,079$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa573…8553backed Yes | 76c | 1,062$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed No | 12c | 1,050$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.03 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca3b…f7b4backed No | 30c | 979$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e94…13d6backed No | 24c | 977$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…0509backed Yes | 69c | 964$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae1…b496backed No | 7c | 940$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 8c | 916.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.77 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x372d…cb5cbacked No | 29c | 882$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 5c | 866.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf8…6bdbbacked No | 28c | 865$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 8c | 861$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.49 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…c0cdbacked No | 12c | 860$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 17c | 856.94$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.87 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 4c | 852.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Benny Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Guillermo del Toro win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Hikari win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jafar Panahi win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Joachim Trier win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jon M. Chu win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Josh Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Kathryn Bigelow win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Kleber Mendonça Filho win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Park Chan-wook win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Yorgos Lanthimos win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.